主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.08.22

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1646
• 前回終了: 1.1606
• 前日に%変動: -0.34 %

On Thursday, the euro held steady at around $1.165, remaining in a narrow range since the beginning of the week and retaining most of its rally this year, as markets assessed fresh data and new developments in trade with the US. New PMI data showed that economic activity in the Eurozone grew at its fastest pace in 15 months amid rising new orders and prices, increasing the likelihood of an ECB rate cut, with ESTR futures pointing to a consensus for a 25 bps rate cut this year. Meanwhile, new data on the EU-US trade deal showed that most European goods will be subject to 15% tariffs, although cars, pharmaceuticals, and microchips may not be subject to the higher sectoral tariffs threatened by the US.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1629, 1.1687, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish, but close to changing. The euro has corrected to the priority change level of 1.1589. Consolidation below this level will trigger a medium-term trend change, so buyers will do their best to hold this level. Moreover, there is a zone of liquidity accumulation below this level, so, provided that buyers react, it is possible to look for buy trades within the day.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3451
• 前回終了: 1.3451
• 前日に%変動: -0.29 %

The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.3 in August 2025 from 48 in July, below expectations of 48.3. Production volumes declined again, with companies citing low levels of new orders and fierce competition as global demand remained sluggish amid uncertainty over US tariffs. New business declined at the fastest pace since April, and job cuts intensified. However, business optimism rose, with manufacturers hoping for a recovery in consumer demand and a moderate market upturn next year, although caution about global trade risks remains.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3462, 1.3522, 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The pound has also corrected to the priority change level of 1.3396. There is a concentration of liquidity below this level, so after the test, there will either be a reaction from buyers, which will open up opportunities for intraday buying, or a further sell-off, which will change the medium-term trend. Therefore, it is important to correctly assess the price action at 1.3396.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downward trend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 147.29
• 前回終了: 148.36
• 前日に%変動: +0.73 %

The Japanese yen weakened to 145.5 per dollar on Friday, its lowest level in three weeks, as traders digested the latest inflation data. The Core Consumer Price Index rose to 3.1% year-on-year in July 2025, down slightly from 3.3% in June but exceeding market expectations of 3%. The figure remained well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, reinforcing expectations of a policy change. Analysts expect core inflation to remain above 3% for an extended period, increasing the odds that the Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as October. However, Governor Kazuo Ueda remains cautious, stressing that “core inflation” is not yet showing consistent compliance with the 2% target.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 148.03, 147.09, 146.35
• 抵抗レベル: 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish, but close to changing. The Japanese yen has reached the priority change level and tested liquidity above 148.52. It is important to assess the price action here. Holding the price above this level could lead to further price growth. If sellers react and the price consolidates below 148.52 today, this could trigger a drop to 148.03 amid the distribution of captured liquidity.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3350
• 前回終了: 3338
• 前日に%変動: -0.36 %

On Friday, gold fell to $3330 per ounce, remaining in a narrow range as traders avoided major moves ahead of Fed Chairman Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, which could signal the outlook for US policy. On Thursday, Fed officials gave no indication of support for a rate cut next month, leaving markets focused on Powell’s speech for guidance amid signs of a cooling labor market, while inflation remains above target and vulnerable to tariff-related pressures. Investors are still considering the possibility of policy easing in September, with markets pricing in a 75% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. On the geopolitical front, hopes for a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine have faded as reports emerged that Russia had launched its largest strike on Ukraine.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3327, 3311, 3281
• 抵抗レベル: 3358, 3374, 3402, 3433

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. On Wednesday, after testing the support level of 3311, buyers took the initiative with a change in structure on intraday timeframes. The price then corrected to 3327, where buyers reacted again. Currently, the price is retesting 3327, which opens up opportunities for new buy deals. However, it should be noted that it is important for buyers not to let the price settle below 3327. Otherwise, this could lead to a retest of 3311 with an update of the week’s low.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.