主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.08.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1614
• 前回終了: 1.1641
• 前日に%変動: +0.23 %

The euro is trading around $1.166, not far from its four-year high of $1.18 on July 1. The ECB, which has already cut rates more than the Fed, is now signaling a pause, highlighting the strength of the Eurozone labor market. In addition, business activity in Germany reached a 15-month high in August, confirming recent optimistic activity data and easing pressure for further rate cuts this year. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, on the other hand, hinted at a September rate cut in the US, highlighting the policy divergence. Thus, the interest rate differential is now skewed towards EUR/USD appreciation.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1608, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1660, 1.1687, 1.1737, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. However, sellers have built up resistance at 1.1660, which has led to the formation of a wide flat range of 1.1608–1.1660. Currently, the price is striving to test the lower border, where buy deals can be considered, provided that buyers react. If 1.1660 is broken, we can expect the price to fall to the priority change level of 1.1589.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3455
• 前回終了: 1.3479
• 前日に%変動: +0.18 %

The British pound rose slightly to $1.347 after a survey showed that British businesses had experienced their strongest month in a year, thanks to an upturn in the services sector. This data followed inflation data, which only briefly boosted the pound. The inflation data is unlikely to significantly change the Bank of England’s policy stance. Money markets now see the probability of a rate cut before the end of 2025 at less than 50%, with the probability of a quarter-point cut this year at just 36%.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3445, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3490, 1.3530, 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The British pound is forming a flat accumulation with boundaries of 1.3445–1.3490. The price is now heading towards testing the lower boundary, where it is important to assess price action. If buyers take the initiative here, it will open up opportunities for intraday purchases. A breakdown and consolidation below 1.3490 could trigger a sharp sell-off to 1.3396.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 147.73
• 前回終了: 147.35
• 前日に%変動: -0.26 %

Over the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that wages in Japan are expected to continue to rise amid a tightening labor market, indicating that conditions for another rate hike are gradually materializing. At its July meeting, the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations and presented a more optimistic economic outlook.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 147.00, 146.75, 146.35
• 抵抗レベル: 147.94, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen is also forming a wide-volatility flat with boundaries of 147.00–147.94. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of the flat, where sell trades can be considered, provided there is a reaction from buyers. A breakout and consolidation above 147.94 will open the way for the price to reach the priority change level of 148.52.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3365
• 前回終了: 3393
• 前日に%変動: +0.83 %

On Wednesday, gold fell to $3380 per ounce but remained close to a two-week high, supported by its appeal as a safe haven amid concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. President Trump signaled a legal battle by seeking the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged misconduct, reigniting concerns about the Fed’s independence and its susceptibility to political pressure. Analysts warn that her removal could accelerate rate cuts, which is in line with Trump’s desire for a more accommodative policy. Markets are now pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in September. On trade, a US official said that an agreement with India is unlikely to be reached before the deadline, paving the way for tariffs on Indian goods to double to 50%, while Indonesia has secured duty-free status for some goods.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3374, 3362, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281
• 抵抗レベル: 3383, 3402, 3433

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Yesterday, buyers reacted to the support level of 3351, where the price consolidated above 3383, potentially opening the way to 3402. However, given the MACD divergence, a correction to 3362 is possible. Buy deals in continuation of the trend should be considered from 3362, or after the price consolidates above 3383 again. There are no optimal entry points for sales at this time.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.