主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.09.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1693
• 前回終了: 1.1711
• 前日に%変動: +0.15 %

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the Eurozone fell to 6.2% in July 2025 from 6.3% in June, in line with market expectations. The indicator reached a record low, indicating a strong labor market, as the number of unemployed fell by 170,000. Youth unemployment (under 25) also improved, falling to a historic low of 13.9% from 14.3% in June. Among the largest Eurozone countries, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Germany (3.7%) and the Netherlands (3.8%), followed by Italy (6.0%), France (7.6%), and Spain (10.4%).

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1687, 1.1656, 1.1629, 1.1611, 1.1589, 1.1528
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1717, 1.1737

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro has corrected to the support level of 1.1687, where buy trades can be considered if buyers react. It is important for buyers not to let the price settle below 1.1687. Otherwise, the price may sell off to 1.1656.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3492
• 前回終了: 1.3542
• 前日に%変動: +0.37 %

The British pound remained above $1.35, its strongest level since mid-August, helped by a weaker dollar as investors await US employment data later this week and a possible 25 bp rate cut by the Fed in September. The dollar was pressured by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve following a court hearing on President Trump’s request to remove Fed member Governor Cook, as well as ongoing trade uncertainty after a federal appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal. Domestically, investors are focused on the timing of the autumn budget as parliament returns from its summer recess, and they will be watching closely for clues about future rate cuts and possible adjustments to the Central Bank’s quantitative tightening program during the Bank of England’s Treasury Committee hearings.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3490, 1.3445, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3543, 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. A so-called SMT divergence has formed between EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This is when one instrument updates its price maximum or minimum, while the other does not. As a rule, this leads to corrective movements. The price of GBP is currently trading at the level of moving averages, and there are two possible scenarios: either the price will now flatten near the average lines, or it will correct to 1.3490.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 147.02
• 前回終了: 147.17
• 前日に%変動: +0.10 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen fell below 147.5 per dollar, approaching a weekly low, as traders awaited wage data that could influence domestic monetary policy. Markets remain divided over the timing and pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan amid uncertainty over tariffs. Investors are still betting that the Bank of Japan may raise rates before the end of the year, based on steady wage growth, stable inflation, and a more optimistic economic outlook. Externally, the yen was also pressured by a moderate recovery in the dollar ahead of the release of key US labor market data, which could determine the course of Federal Reserve policy.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 147.34, 146.74, 146.35
• 抵抗レベル: 147.94, 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen unexpectedly fell on Tuesday. The price consolidated above 147.34 and has now reached the resistance level of 147.94. It is very important for sellers not to let the price consolidate above this level, as this could trigger a further rise in quotes to 148.52. Intraday, sell trades can be considered, provided that sellers react to the 147.94 level.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend wil likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3452
• 前回終了: 3478
• 前日に%変動: +0.75 %

On Tuesday, gold prices rose above $3490 per ounce, reaching a historic high, driven by growing expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month and a weakening US dollar. Last week’s US inflation report reinforced hopes for monetary policy easing, and markets now see a roughly 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. Attention now turns to the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, which could influence the size of the expected Fed rate cut. Demand for the precious metal as a safe haven is also supported by lingering concerns about the independence of the US Central Bank and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3469, 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374, 3362, 3350, 3327, 3311, 3281
• 抵抗レベル: 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has reached its previous historical high of 3500. The MACD indicator points to divergence, but the price may make another update to the high for greater liquidity capture. Buying here is not recommended. For sales, it is necessary to wait for initiative from sellers, which is also absent at the moment.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 3374 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.