主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.09.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1698
• 前回終了: 1.1726
• 前日に%変動: +0.24 %

Eurozone Industrial Business Confidence went from negative 10.2 in August to negative 10.3 in September 2025, but remained above market expectations of minus 10.9. Managers reported a sharp improvement in production expectations, while assessments of current order books declined, and views on stocks of finished products were broadly unchanged. Eurozone Consumer Confidence in September 2025 came in at 14.9, higher than the August figure (-15.5) and in line with the preliminary estimate. Sentiment also improved across the wider European Union, with the indicator rising by 0.5 points, from negative 14.8 in August to negative 14.3, as consumers became less pessimistic about their households’ future financial situation and expressed a stronger intention to make major purchases over the next 12 months.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1709, 1.1661, 1.1634
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is downward. The euro secured a close above 1.1702 yesterday, leading to a rally toward the 1.1754 resistance level. Today, traders’ focus is on this level. A break above it on an impulse move will clear the path for the price to reach 1.1786 and higher. If, after breaking 1.1754, the price quickly reverses back on an impulse, it would form trapped positions above the level and open up selling opportunities.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1819 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3388
• 前回終了: 1.3428
• 前日に%変動: +0.30 %

The pound rose to $1.343 following an address by Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves at the Labour Party Conference. Reeves emphasized the importance of fiscal discipline, promising not to deviate from budget rules. She outlined Labour’s measures for schools, the NHS, and industry, including a £1.5 billion loan guarantee for Jaguar Land Rover, and highlighted anti-fraud measures that recovered £400 million. Markets reacted mildly, awaiting concrete policy details ahead of the November 26 budget, where she will lay out tax and spending plans. The UK economy is expected to grow by less than 1.5% in 2025, and inflation is projected to reach 4% in September, nearly double the Bank of England’s target.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3415, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3463, 1.3491, 1.3532

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The British pound also corrected but, unlike the euro, failed to reach the 1.3464 resistance level, where a liquidity pool is located. Today, we anticipate a test of this level and will evaluate the price reaction. If sellers respond at 1.3464, intraday sales to 1.3415 could be considered. A breakout and close above 1.3464 will clear the path for the price to reach 1.3491.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3532 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 149.37
• 前回終了: 148.52
• 前日に%変動: -0.57 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen fell back to 148.7 per dollar, interrupting a two-day rally, as investors processed mixed signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). A summary of opinions from the September meeting showed some policymakers arguing for further rate hikes if growth and inflation expectations materialize, while others supported maintaining low rates to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on the economy. In terms of data, Japan’s retail sales fell by 1.1% in August, missing the 1% growth edtimste and marking the first decline since February 2022, while industrial output also contracted more than expected.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 147.95, 147.50
• 抵抗レベル: 148.47, 148.88, 150.00, 150.73

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is upward. The price fell slightly short of the psychological 150 mark. The corrective decline began earlier, and the price has now broken the 148.47 support level. It is important to evaluate the price action here. At the moment, there is a high probability that the price will continue to decline toward 147.95. However, there is also a small chance of price accumulation below 148.47 followed by an impulsive close above the level. In this scenario, buy trades could be considered.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.50 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3766
• 前回終了: 3828
• 前日に%変動: +1.64 %

Gold prices climbed to a new all-time high of $3850 per ounce on Tuesday, marking the most significant monthly gain in 14 years, as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid rising concerns over a potential US government shutdown and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts. Talks between President Trump and Congressional leaders on Monday ended without an agreement on short-term funding, increasing the risk of a government shutdown when current funding expires at midnight on Tuesday. If no deal is reached, the shutdown will begin on Wednesday, which could delay the release of key economic data, including the September Non-Farm Payrolls report.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3800, 3760, 3718
• 抵抗レベル: 3850, 3900

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continued its rally. The price closed impulsively above 3850, which increases the likelihood of further gains. For a reversal or correction to occur, we would need to see a locked balance above the resistance level or, at a minimum, a bearish impulse. As neither of these is present yet, looking for selling opportunities is premature, despite the MACD divergence. For buys to continue the trend, the best entry points are the EMA lines or the 3850 level, but with confirmation in the form of a bullish reaction.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks the support level of 3721 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.