主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.10.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1645
• 前回終了: 1.1651
• 前日に%変動: +0.05 %

Average consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone fell to 2.7% in September 2025 from 2.8% in August. The projected unemployment rate for the 12-month horizon remained unchanged at 10.7%, which is only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.2%), indicating relatively stable expectations for the labor market. The data support the ECB policymakers’ desire to keep interest rates at current levels.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1618, 1.1600, 1.1543
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1648, 1.1667, 1.1686, 1.1728

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bullish. Sellers took the initiative after testing the liquidity zone above 1.1667. Intraday, the bias remains with sellers. Thus, for sell deals, consider the resistance level of 1.1648 or the EMA line. The profit target is 1.1618 or 1.1600, where traders can already consider buying trades, provided that buyers react.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below the 1.1543 support and consolidates, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3336
• 前回終了: 1.3273
• 前日に%変動: -0.47 %

The British pound fell to $1.325, reaching its lowest level since late July, as traders increased bets on an interest rate cut by the Bank of England. Pressure on the currency increased after reports that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is preparing to lower its projections for productivity growth in the UK. The revision adds pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of November’s budget, which is expected to include measures to fill a gap of up to £35 billion. Money markets now see a roughly 68% chance of a 25 basis point BoE rate cut in December.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3214, 1.3137
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3251, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair has changed downward. The British pound is under selling pressure and looks much weaker than the euro. The price has settled below the key support level. For selling, you can consider the resistance levels of 1.3251 or 1.3291. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 152.77
• 前回終了: 152.01
• 前日に%変動: -0.50 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen fell to 152 per dollar. The Bank of Japan will hold a meeting tomorrow, at which rates are expected to remain unchanged. However, the regulator reportedly plans to discuss the conditions for further rate hikes amid declining tariff risks and accelerating domestic inflation. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump met with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Tuesday, promising to deepen bilateral relations and signing agreements on trade and critical minerals.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 152.27, 152.57, 153.28, 154.80

The medium-term trend is bullish. Buyers reacted sharply to the support level of 151.54, after which the price rebounded to the 152.27-152.57 zone. This is a strong supply zone that can be used as an area for selling. It is highly likely that the pair will trade in the range of 151.54-152.57 until the Bank of Japan meeting tomorrow.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 149.75 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3981
• 前回終了: 3951
• 前日に%変動: -0.75%

On Tuesday, gold prices fell for the third day in a row. Pressure on the market intensified due to profit-taking and declining demand for safe-haven assets amid growing optimism about the trade deal between the US and China. Representatives of both countries confirmed that, following negotiations in Malaysia, a framework agreement had been reached on tariffs and a number of key issues.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 3976, 4013, 4052, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. At the same time, the price has reached the demand zone, where buyers have begun to show activity. So far, this does not look like a full-fledged reversal, but given the MACD divergence, it looks like a technical correction. Today, we can expect growth to resistance levels of 4013 or 4050, where sellers may regain the initiative. It is important for sellers not to let the price consolidate above 4050. Otherwise, the rally may resume.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.