主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.10.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1652
• 前回終了: 1.1601
• 前日に%変動: -0.44 %

As expected, the US Federal Reserve cut its rate by 25 basis points, but at a press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell said that a December cut is not a foregone conclusion. The probability of an additional step, according to market estimates, fell to 88% from 90% earlier in the day. Today, the ECB will hold its meeting, where the rate is expected to remain unchanged, which should potentially give the euro some advantage over the dollar.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1618, 1.1582, 1.1543
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1648, 1.1667, 1.1686, 1.1728

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bullish. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting caused the euro to drop sharply to 1.1582. However, after testing liquidity, the price rebounded sharply and is now trading above 1.1618 again. It is important for buyers not to let the price settle below 1.1618 again. This level can be considered as support for buy deals with a target of 1.1648. If the price settles below 1.1618, it will trigger a sell-off to 1.1582.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below the 1.1543 support and consolidates, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3271
• 前回終了: 1.3191
• 前日に%変動: -0.60 %

The pound fell below $1.32 under pressure from a strong dollar and growing expectations of a BoE rate cut. The US dollar strengthened after the Fed’s decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. However, Chairman Jerome Powell warned that further rate cuts this year are not guaranteed, which supported the dollar and increased pressure on G10 currencies. Growing expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates in the coming months were an additional negative for the pound. Concerns about the November budget have also intensified, with markets pricing in the risk of measures that could slow economic growth.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3200, 1.3137
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. After testing liquidity below 1.3200, the British pound consolidated above that level. It is important for buyers not to let the price consolidate below 1.3200 again. Otherwise, a repeat sell-off to 1.3137 is almost guaranteed. For buy deals, we need to see bullish initiative from 1.3200.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 152.10
• 前回終了: 152.63
• 前日に%変動: +0.34 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen fell to 153 yen per dollar, approaching a nine-month low after the Bank of Japan left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. The decision, which was expected by the market, was taken by a majority of 7 votes to 2, with 2 representatives voting for an increase in the rate to 0.75%. The regulator confirmed its readiness to continue normalizing policy provided that economic expectations are realized. However, the prospects for tightening are complicated by the fact that the new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is known for her support of a soft monetary policy.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 153.27, 154.80

The medium-term trend is bullish. The price impulsively broke through the resistance level of 153.27. Above this level, there is a large accumulation of liquidity. If sellers do not react here, we can expect further price growth to 154.80. A sharp return of the price below 153.27 will form a locked balance above the level, which could lead to a sharp sell-off.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.54 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3934
• 前回終了: 3929
• 前日に%変動: -0.12%

Gold fell below $3950 per ounce after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that a rate cut in December was not a foregone conclusion. These comments dampened expectations of another 25 bp move and pushed up 10-year Treasury yields. Signs of progress in US-China trade negotiations also reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 3976, 4013, 4052, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. Gold is unable to consolidate above the 3976 level, which indicates weakness on the buying side. Considering that there are two more resistance levels above (4020 and 4050), the probability of a price decline is higher than that of an increase. For sales, 3976 or 4020 can be considered, but with confirmation. For the gold rally to resume, the price needs to impulsively consolidate above both 4020 and 4050. And for this, a fundamental or news trigger is needed.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.