主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.11.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1528
• 前回終了: 1.1518
• 前日に%変動: -0.09 %

The Dollar Index remained near three-month highs on Monday, putting pressure on the euro. The latest ISM publication in the US recorded a deeper-than-expected contraction in the industrial sector, as well as a slowdown in price pressure. Now, market participants’ attention is focused on the ADP employment report. According to market expectations, the probability of a 25 bp Fed rate cut in December is estimated at almost 70%, while the probability of an ECB rate cut in December is estimated at only 5%. This skew in interest rate expectations should contribute to the strengthening of the euro in the medium term.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1517
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1547, 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The price tested liquidity below 1.1515, and buyers showed a moderate reaction. A divergence has formed on the MACD indicator, which increases the likelihood of a corrective movement. For sales, you can consider the resistance level of 1.1547, but with confirmation. Buy deals can be considered within the framework of a corrective movement, provided that the price impulsively consolidates above the downward channel.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3125
• 前回終了: 1.3139
• 前日に%変動: +0.11 %

The UK manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in October 2025 from 46.2 a month earlier, slightly above the preliminary estimate (49.6) and the highest reading in the last year. The indicator remains below 50, but the trend points to an impending stabilization of the industry. In addition, the first growth in production in 12 months was recorded, facilitated by the elimination of logistical delays and restocking. Employment declined for the twelfth consecutive month, although the rate of decline slowed as companies continued to cut costs and paused hiring. Business optimism rose to an eight-month high but remains below the long-term average amid ongoing financial and geopolitical uncertainty.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3086
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The British pound continues to form a flat accumulation. While the price is in balance, it is not recommended to look for buy or sell trades. There is still a possibility of another wave of decline to 1.3086, where buy trades can be considered, but only if buyers take the initiative.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 153.99
• 前回終了: 154.20
• 前日に%変動: -0.14 %

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen strengthened above 154 per dollar. The national currency was supported by comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who reiterated that the authorities are paying close attention to increased volatility in the currency market and are ready to respond to sharp unilateral movements in the exchange rate. Katayama had previously stated that the fair value of the yen is in the range of 120-130 per dollar. At the same time, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi noted that Japan has not yet achieved sustainable inflation based on wage growth, expressing caution about further tightening of monetary policy. According to her, annual consumer price inflation remains around 3%, largely due to high food prices, but the economy is still “only halfway” to stable inflationary growth.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 153.26, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 154.41, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. The price has impulsively consolidated below the flat accumulation. It is highly likely that the price will seek to test the demand zone near the 153.25 level. Corrective sell trades can be considered from the EMA lines or from the lower balance line. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4001
• 前回終了: 4010
• 前日に%変動: +0.22%

Demand for gold as a safe-haven asset declined after the US and China agreed to extend the tariff truce, ease export restrictions, and reduce a number of trade barriers. An additional deterrent was China’s decision to cancel a long-standing tax exemption on gold sales, which could lead to higher domestic prices and weaker consumer demand in one of the world’s largest physical gold markets. Investors expect the statistics to provide new guidance on the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3930, 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 4050, 4137, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. The situation has remained virtually unchanged. Gold continues to trade in a wide range. This is a balanced environment where buyers and sellers are fighting each other. While the price is in balance, it is better to refrain from taking positions on gold, as liquidity is currently accumulating. It is worth becoming active when the price closes impulsively above or below the balance.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.