主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.11.05

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1517
• 前回終了: 1.1481
• 前日に%変動: -0.31 %

Comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde came as no surprise to the market. Her speech continued the rhetoric following the European Central Bank’s decision last week to keep key rates unchanged for the third time in a row. The ECB is considered to have largely completed its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates several more times before the end of 2026. This divergence could potentially contribute to the strengthening of the European currency against the US dollar.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1462, 1.1392
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1497, 1.1574, 1.1547, 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The price has fallen below 1.1497. A divergence has formed on the MACD indicator, which increases the likelihood of a corrective movement. For sell deals, you can consider the resistance level of 1.1497, but with confirmation. An impulsive close above 1.1497 will open the way for the price to 1.1547.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3138
• 前回終了: 1.3020
• 前日に%変動: -0.90 %

The pound remains under pressure, falling to a 7-month low. Yesterday, investors assessed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ pre-budget statements ahead of the Bank of England’s decision on Thursday. Reeves warned that the government faces a “difficult choice” between maintaining spending and reducing public debt, effectively hinting at a possible increase in a wide range of taxes. She also emphasized her commitment to strict budgetary discipline, despite the pressure created by high interest rates and years of underinvestment in infrastructure and public services. While markets had previously not priced in any rate changes until spring, traders now see the probability of a rate cut this week as roughly equal.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3030
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3080, 1.3162, 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The British pound closed impulsively lower after forming a flat. The sell-off intensified, causing the price to drop to 1.3030. It is important to assess the price action here. If sellers take the initiative here as well, the sell-off will continue. However, if buyers can impulsively push the price back above 1.3030, there is a high probability of a technical rebound to 1.3080.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 154.18
• 前回終了: 153.65
• 前日に%変動: -0.34 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen strengthened to around ¥153 per dollar, continuing the previous session’s gains amid increased demand for safe-haven assets following a global sell-off of risky instruments. Pressure on global equities intensified due to growing concerns about overheated valuations of companies associated with artificial intelligence. Verbal interventions by Japanese authorities provided additional support to the currency. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that the government is closely monitoring volatility in the currency market and is ready to respond to sharp unilateral fluctuations in the exchange rate.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 153.75, 154.29, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. The price corrected to the support level of 153.15, where buyers reacted. Today, the focus is on assessing price action at the resistance level of 153.75. An impulsive breakout of this level will open the way for the price to 154.29. If sellers react at 153.75, intraday sales to 153.15 can be considered.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4010
• 前回終了: 3938
• 前日に%変動: -1.82%

On Wednesday, gold prices rose to around $3970 per ounce, partially recovering from the previous session’s losses. The growth was driven by increased risk-off sentiment, which boosted demand for safe-haven assets after a sharp decline in global stock indices amid concerns about overheated valuations. However, further strengthening of prices was limited by lower expectations of additional Fed policy easing. Investors are focusing on private labor market reports, which have become more important due to the limited availability of government data amid the ongoing shutdown of federal agencies.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3930, 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 3975, 4046, 4137, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. Gold continues to fluctuate widely in the range of 3930-4046. This is a balanced environment where buyers and sellers are fighting each other. While the price is in balance, it is better to refrain from medium-term positions on gold, as liquidity is currently accumulating. Within the day, the intermediate resistance level of 3975 is of interest. Its breakout on momentum could trigger a rise to 4046.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.