主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.11.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1479
• 前回終了: 1.1491
• 前日に%変動: +0.10 %

The euro remained just below $1.15, trading near a three-month low after the ECB released wage data that pointed to weaker income growth and reinforced expectations that interest rates would remain unchanged. At the same time, the dollar strengthened as traders reduced bets on further Fed rate cuts after Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments and stronger ADP employment and ISM services data.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1497, 1.1462, 1.1392
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1547, 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The price has formed a locked balance below 1.1497, which will now act as a demand zone. The 1.1497 level can be considered for buy deals, but with confirmation in the form of a reaction from buyers. A divergence has formed on the MACD indicator, which increases the likelihood of a corrective movement. The profit target is 1.1547. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3019
• 前回終了: 1.3048
• 前日に%変動: +0.22 %

The Bank of England is expected to keep key rates unchanged today, but softer inflation and wage data have strengthened the case for a possible rate cut in the coming months. At the same time, markets have grown more expectant that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will announce tougher fiscal measures in the November 26 budget to cope with growing borrowing needs. Meanwhile, macro statistics showed a strengthening of activity in the service sector: in October, production volumes and the number of new orders increased, and business confidence rose to its highest level in the last year.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3013
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3080, 1.3162, 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the British pound reached the support level of 1.3013, where buyers began to show activity. This effort is sufficient for a corrective rise, but not enough for a reversal. Today, the focus is on the price reaction to the supply zone above 1.3080. A sharp breakout of this zone could trigger a sharp rise in price to 1.3161. There are fundamental triggers for the pound today. But if the price fails to break through the zone above 1.3080, another sharp sell-off could occur.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 153.62
• 前回終了: 154.10
• 前日に%変動: +0.32 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen strengthened above 154 per dollar, partially recovering from the previous session’s losses, as steady wage growth reinforced expectations of further tightening by the Bank of Japan. Nominal wages rose 1.9% year-on-year in September, up from 1.5% in August, driven by steady growth in base salaries and a modest increase in overtime pay. However, wage growth once again lagged behind inflation, with consumer prices rising 3.4% year-on-year. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the wage prognosis for 2026 will be a key factor in considering the possibility of resuming tightening after the regulator left policy unchanged last week.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 153.75, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 154.29, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. The price has impulsively consolidated above 153.75. Today, the focus is on assessing price action at the resistance level of 153.75, forming a wide locked balance below the level. This level will now act as support. If buyers react to this level, it opens up good opportunities for buy trades. Profit targets are 154.29 and above. If sellers push back 153.75, intraday sales to 153.15 can be considered.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3939
• 前回終了: 3984
• 前日に%変動: +1.14%

On Wednesday, gold prices remained around $3975 per ounce, reducing some of the gains made earlier. Investors reacted to a stronger-than-expected ADP employment report: private employers in the US added 42,000 jobs in October against expectations of 25,000, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will not rush to further cut rates. Inflation remains above target, and the government shutdown is delaying the release of key labour market statistics, making secondary indicators more significant. Easing trade tensions have also added to the bearish factors.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3930, 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 3975, 4046, 4137, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. Gold continues to trade in a wide range between 3930 and 4046. This is a balanced environment where buyers and sellers are fighting each other. While the price is in balance, it is better to refrain from medium-term positions on gold, as liquidity is currently accumulating. Intraday, the intermediate support level of 3950 is of interest, from which the price could rise to the upper border of 4046.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.