主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.11.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1489
• 前回終了: 1.1546
• 前日に%変動: +0.49 %

The euro held above $1.15, trying to recover from a three-month low, as investors reassessed the divergence in the policy trajectories of the ECB and the Federal Reserve. The ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged for an extended period: money markets are now pricing in only about a 45% chance of a rate cut by September 2026, down significantly from more than 80% in October.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1497, 1.1462, 1.1392
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1547, 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The price corrected to the resistance level of 1.1547, where buyers began to close previously opened positions. Intraday, the bias is again in favor of sellers, which increases the likelihood of a decline to 1.1497. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1547 will open the way for the price to 1.1579.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3045
• 前回終了: 1.3136
• 前日に%変動: +0.69 %

The Bank of England (BoE) voted 5-4 to keep the base rate at 4%, noting that Consumer Price Index inflation has probably already peaked. It is noteworthy that four members of the committee voted to cut the rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, which turned out to be a more dovish outcome than the markets had expected. The regulator added that if disinflation continues, the rate is likely to decline gradually, but further easing requires additional confirmation of a sustained slowdown in inflationary pressures. Overall, the medium-term scenario for the pound is moderately bearish.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3076, 1.3013
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3162, 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The price is currently correcting and is attempting to test the resistance level of 1.3162, above which there is a concentration of liquidity. For intraday buy deals, consider the EMA lines or the support level of 1.3076, but with confirmation. For sales, traders need to assess the price reaction at 1.3162.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 154.08
• 前回終了: 153.05
• 前日に%変動: -0.67 %

On Friday, the Japanese yen traded around 153 per dollar, maintaining the growth of the previous session. The yen was supported by the weakening of the US dollar, as signs of a cooling US labor market reinforced expectations of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve. On the domestic front, Japanese household spending rose 1.8% in September, slowing from 2.3% in August and falling short of prognoses of 2.5%.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 153.78, 154.29, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. Yesterday, the price impulsively consolidated below 153.78 and fell again to 153.15, where buyers reacted. Currently, the price is heading towards a test of 153.78, where it is important to assess the price action. If sellers are active here, it will open up opportunities for intraday selling. A breakout and consolidation above 153.78 will open the way for the price to 154.29.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3984
• 前回終了: 3980
• 前日に%変動: -0.10%

On Friday, gold prices remained around $4,000 per ounce, moderately extending the previous session’s gains. Pressure from the US labor market reinforced expectations of an imminent easing of Federal Reserve policy and reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. October private sector employment data showed an increase of only 42,000 jobs, while the number of announced layoffs reached its highest level for October in more than 20 years. This combination reinforces the expectations of weaker employment growth in the short term amid the ongoing US government shutdown. At the same time, signals from the US Supreme Court regarding tariffs and the prospect of reduced trade friction have eliminated some of the demand for defensive assets.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3960, 3930, 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 3975, 4046, 4137, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. Gold continues to trade in a wide range between 3930 and 4046. This is a balanced environment where buyers and sellers are fighting each other. While the price is in balance, it is better to refrain from medium-term positions on gold, as liquidity is currently accumulating. Intraday, the intermediate support level of 3960 is of interest, from which the price could rise to the upper limit of 4046.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.