主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.11.10

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1542
• 前回終了: 1.1564
• 前日に%変動: +0.19 %

The euro is trading around 1.1550. The market believes the ECB will keep rates unchanged for a long time, while the US Fed is expected to cut rates at least twice, giving the euro a medium-term advantage over the US dollar. ECB officials are cautious in their statements, but all point to the likelihood that the ECB has ended its rate-cutting cycle. Moreover, the US dollar came under pressure on Friday after a private Challenger report showed the highest layoffs in 20 years in October, reinforcing expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut and offsetting strong ADP and ISM reports.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1547, 1.1520, 1.1497, 1.1462, 1.1392
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1579, 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish, but market conditions are forming for a trend reversal. Intraday bias is currently with buyers. For buying, support levels 1.1547 or 1.1520 can be considered, but with confirmation. Profit target: resistance at 1.1579. No optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3121
• 前回終了: 1.3162
• 前日に%変動: +0.31 %

This week, the UK will release a block of key data: employment, wages, and Q3 GDP. The labor market remains resilient, and wage growth is above expectations of some Bank of England members. Although the regulator kept policy unchanged, swaps price in a 70% probability of a rate cut as early as next month. Expected Q3 GDP growth is around 0.2% q/q, but risks lean toward weaker data. In addition, uncertainty around the autumn budget on November 26 adds pressure on the pound.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3137, 1.3109, 1.3072
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3162, 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. As with the euro, market conditions are shifting toward growth. The price is currently trading near resistance at 1.3162, but buyers are pushing from support levels 1.3137 and 1.3109. These levels can be considered for buying to continue the upward move. A consolidation above 1.3162 will open the path to 1.3217.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 153.02
• 前回終了: 153.44
• 前日に%変動: +0.92 %

The Bank of Japan signaled it may continue gradual rate hikes as the economy and inflation improve, but emphasized caution due to high uncertainty. In the October summary of opinions, it was noted that growth and price prognoses should be assessed without bias. Despite expected wage growth in 2026, rising living and construction costs will continue to pressure households. Most members believe conditions for further normalization are nearly in place, but it is important to ensure inflation is firmly established. Some members advocated earlier steps amid a weak yen and strong US economy.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 153.58, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 154.29, 154.79, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. The price is now heading toward a test of resistance at 154.29, which can be considered as a selling point if sellers show initiative. A breakout on momentum above 154.29 will open the path to 154.79.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 3981
• 前回終了: 4004
• 前日に%変動: +0.58%

On Monday, gold rose above $4,050 per ounce amid weak US data and expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The University of Michigan Sentiment Index fell close to a historical low, layoffs reached a 20-year high, and private reports pointed to further job losses. The probability of a 25 bps rate cut is estimated at more than 70%. Dollar weakness and increased demand for safe-haven assets also supported gold prices.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4046, 4019, 3960, 3930, 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 4137, 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term has shifted downward. Gold impulsively consolidated above the accumulation range of 3930-4046. Market conditions are forming toward a new bullish trend. For buying, levels 4046 and 4019 are best considered. Buyers must prevent the price from falling below 4019. Otherwise, the trend scenario will be canceled. Profit targets: 4137 and above. No optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 4137 and consolidates above it, the downtrend will likely resume.