主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.11.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1550
• 前回終了: 1.1581
• 前日に%変動: +0.26 %

On Tuesday, the euro strengthened to a 1.5-week high, supported by dollar weakness and comments from ECB officials Elderson and Kocher that the current rate level is adequate. The euro is also supported by divergence in central bank policies: the ECB appears to have ended its rate-cutting cycle, while the Fed is expected to deliver several cuts by the end of 2026. A negative factor was Germany’s November ZEW survey, which showed an unexpected decline in economic growth expectations by 0.8 points to 38.5 versus the projection of 41.0. Markets currently estimate the probability of an ECB rate cut of 25 basis points at the December 18 meeting at just 3%.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1577, 1.1542, 1.1520, 1.1497, 1.1462, 1.1392
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1605, 1.1634, 1.1667

The hourly trend for EUR/USD is bearish, but market conditions are forming for a reversal. Yesterday, the price impulsively broke resistance at 1.1577 and reached 1.1605. In the Asian session, the price pulled back to 1.1577, making it important to assess price action during the day. If buyers defend the level again, intraday buying opportunities with a target of 1.1605 may appear. If the price consolidates below 1.1577, it would indicate buyers are gone and the price will likely fall to 1.1542.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1666 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3170
• 前回終了: 1.3149
• 前日に%変動: -0.16 %

The British pound fell to $1.31 after weak labor market data reinforced expectations of a December Bank of England rate cut. Regular wage growth slowed to 4.6%, the lowest since early 2022. Total wages came in at 4.8% y/y, slightly below expectations. Unemployment rose to 5.0%. Market focus now shifts to Q3 GDP data due Thursday, which will be an important guide ahead of the Autumn Budget 2025.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3137, 1.3109, 1.3072
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3162, 1.3174, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

Technically, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish. The pound is trading weaker than the euro. A balancing environment is forming in the pair in the shape of a broadening triangle. Support at 1.3125 can be used for buying, but only with confirmation. No optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3365 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 153.91
• 前回終了: 154.14
• 前日に%変動: +0.15 %

On Wednesday, the yen weakened again to 154.5 per dollar. Pressure on the currency came from signals of looser domestic policy. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced plans to set a new multi-year fiscal target, implying more flexible and expansionary government spending. She also effectively indicated that raising interest rates at the Bank of Japan is not a priority, even though some members of the regulator argue for further tightening.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 154.36, 153.58, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 抵抗レベル: 154.79, 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. The price impulsively consolidated above 154.36 and reached resistance at 154.79. Sellers’ reaction is moderate, increasing the likelihood of further growth. A breakout above 154.79 will open the path to 156.54. Buying opportunities can be considered from EMA lines on pullbacks or support at 154.36.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks below 151.85 and consolidates lower, a bearish trend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4111
• 前回終了: 4130
• 前日に%変動: +0.46%

On Wednesday, gold pulled back slightly to around $4,100 per ounce but remained near two-week highs. The market continues to price in imminent Fed easing amid signs of a cooling US labor market. Private data showed that over the four-week period ending October 25, the average pace of job cuts was more than 11,000 per week, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut in December. The probability of a 25 bps cut is now estimated at about 68%. At the same time, investors are watching the situation around the resumption of US government operations: after Senate approval of temporary funding, the market expects a final decision in the coming days.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4100, 4083, 4046, 4019, 3965, 3930, 3896, 3867
• 抵抗レベル: 4162, 4184

Technically, the medium-term is bullish. A rebalancing is currently underway, but the target remains the same – the price is aiming for resistance at 4162. For buying, support at 4100 or 4083 is best considered. No optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

別のシナリオ:

if the price breaks support at 3965 and consolidates below, the downtrend will likely resume.