主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2025.12.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1693
• 前回終了: 1.1737
• 前日に%変動: +0.37%

The Dollar Index dropped to its lowest value in nearly two months as the market continued to react to the Fed’s decision to cut the rate by 25 basis points and launch a program of purchasing $40 billion in Treasury bills per month to support liquidity. Pressure intensified after US Initial Jobless Claims unexpectedly rose to a three-month high, signaling a weakening labor market and strengthening expectations for a more “dovish” policy. Amid dollar weakness, the euro climbed to a 2-month high, supported by comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde regarding a likely upgrade of economic growth prognoses at the next meeting.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1728, 1.1679, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1758, 1.1786

The euro impulsively consolidated above 1.1728 and reached the resistance level of 1.1758. Given the absence of important economic events today, there is a high probability that the price will range between these levels until the end of the trading week. Buy deals can be considered from the support 1.1728 or the EMA lines. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales. However, if the price impulsively consolidates below 1.1728, a corrective decline is highly likely.

別のシナリオ:

Trend: Up
Sup: 1.1728
Res: 1.1758
Note: Considering buy deals from the support 1.1728 or the EMA lines.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3376
• 前回終了: 1.3384
• 前日に%変動: +0.06 %

A block of UK economic data is due today, with the GDP report being key: moderate growth of 0.1% is expected after a 0.1% decline the previous month. A weaker result could increase pressure on the pound, as the market already prices in over 80% probability of a Bank of England rate cut next week, making the currency vulnerable to any negative surprises in the statistics.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3388, 1.3354, 1.3296, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3454

The British pound consolidated above 1.3388, which potentially may lead to growth up to 1.3454. The price has now corrected to the 1.3388 level, but the buyer reaction here for continued growth is weak, and there is a high probability of a pullback to 1.3354. It should also be noted that the SMT divergence between EUR/USD and GBP/USD. This occurs when one instrument updates an extreme, and the other does not. As a rule, SMT divergence is a precursor to a correction or reversal.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3388
• Res: 1.3454
• Note: Buy deals can be considered from the support level 1.3388 or 1.3354, but with confirmation.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 155.93
• 前回終了: 155.56
• 前日に%変動: -0.24 %

The yen stabilized near 155.6 per dollar on Friday after two days of gains, supported by expectations that the Bank of Japan may raise rates as early as next week and continue policy tightening into 2026. Comments from central bank Governor Kazuo Ueda about nearing the inflation target strengthened expectations of an imminent rate hike, and investors await his subsequent statements to understand the future course. Authorities reportedly will not obstruct tightening, as a weak yen increases import costs and inflation.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 155.50, 154.94, 154.41, 154.17
• 抵抗レベル: 155.80, 156.08, 156.57, 157.11

The Japanese currency strengthened yesterday to 154.94, where buyers showed activity, leading to a sharp rise back. It is now important to evaluate the price’s reaction to the resistance level of 155.80. A break and consolidation above this level will open the path for the price to 156.08 and higher. If sellers show initiative from 155.80, intraday sell trades can be sought.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.50
• Res: 155.80
• Note: Considering sell trades from the resistance level 155.80. It is crucial for sellers not to let the price consolidate above this level.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4230
• 前回終了: 4276
• 前日に%変動: +1.09%

Gold prices rose above $4,270 per ounce, recovering some of the recent decline as the market digested the Fed’s decision to cut the rate by 25 basis points and the announcement of buying $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills to stabilize the money market. Although Jerome Powell’s rhetoric was perceived as moderately “dovish,” further policy easing remained conditional, which did not prevent the dollar from weakening to 98 and the yield on 10-year US bonds from declining to 4%. These factors reduced the cost of holding Gold and supported the price recovery.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4263, 4246, 4194, 4163, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• 抵抗レベル: 4379

Gold impulsively consolidated out of a nine-day consolidation and resumed its rally. The path to 4379 is now open for the price. This will not be overcome in a single day, with corrections, but the bias will be with the buyers. For buy deals, the levels 4263 or 4246 are best considered. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4263
• Res: 4379
• Note: Looking for buy deals from the support level of 4263 or 4246, but with confirmation. The profit target is 4379.