主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.01.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1640
• 前回終了: 1.1608
• 前日に%変動: -0.27%

The Euro continued its decline against the US Dollar, trading near 1.163 and hitting a fresh one-month low as markets reassessed macroeconomic signals from the Eurozone and the US amid diverging monetary policy paths. In the Eurozone, investor attention turned to data from Germany, where the economy grew by +0.2% in 2025, snapping a two-year downturn thanks to support from household consumption and government spending. However, persistent weakness in the industrial sector makes growth prospects less sustainable and limits the recovery potential of the single currency. Additional pressure on the Euro came from Eurozone inflation slowing to 2.0% in December, marking a return to the ECB target and strengthening expectations for a prolonged pause in interest rate adjustments.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1594, 1.1528, 1.1503
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1619, 1.1637, 1.1697, 1.1718, 1.1753, 1.1765

The Euro has established itself below 1.1637. The decline occurred on an impulse, indicating bearish interest. The price has now reached the 1.1594 support level, but buyer reaction is weak, increasing the probability of further decline. There are currently no optimal entry points for long positions (buys). For short positions (sales), consider the EMA lines or the 1.1619 resistance level, subject to intraday confirmation. A breakout of 1.1594 will open the path to 1.1528.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1594
• Res: 1.1619
• Note: Consider short positions (sales) from the EMA lines or the 1.1619 resistance level with intraday confirmation.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3432
• 前回終了: 1.3378
• 前日に%変動: -0.40 %

The Pound recovered some losses against the US Dollar, holding near the 1.34 level following the release of stronger-than-expected UK economic growth data. In November, GDP grew by +0.3%, fully offsetting October’s -0.1% decline and significantly exceeding the market forecast of +0.1%. Looking at the broader perspective, the economy also showed resilience: in the three months to November, GDP increased by +0.1%, whereas the consensus forecast anticipated a contraction of -0.2%. Traders are now pricing in a total rate cut of about 46 basis points by the end of the year, with the probability of a second 25-basis-point cut in December estimated at 84%. The first rate cut remains fully priced in by the market for June.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3347, 1.3354, 1.3292
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3393, 1.3422, 1.3455, 1.3486, 1.3503, 1.3526, 1.3586

The technical picture shows a bearish bias. The price broke below 1.3422 on an impulse and closed below 1.3393. There is a lack of buyer reaction, and the nearest strong support level is at 1.3347. Under these market conditions, intraday short positions (sales) can be considered from the EMA lines or the 1.3393 resistance level, with take-profit targets around 1.3347.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3347
• Res: 1.3393
• Note: Consider sales from the EMA lines or the 1.3393 resistance level with take-profits in the 1.3347 region.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 158.41
• 前回終了: 158.58
• 前日に%変動: +0.10 %

The Japanese Yen strengthened again on Friday, consolidating the gains that began earlier in the week amid expectations for signals from the Bank of Japan regarding the future trajectory of rate hikes. Markets are operating on the assumption that the regulator will maintain its current policy at next week’s meeting, while the next rate hike is priced in for approximately June. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirmed a readiness to tighten policy, provided that economic and inflation indicators align with the baseline forecast.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 158.18, 157.37, 156.95, 156.56, 156.26
• 抵抗レベル: 158.88, 159.47

The Yen has retested the 158.18 support level, where buyers reacted. Today, traders’ focus will be on the EMA lines and the zone where the bearish impulse originated. If sellers are active here again, the price could drop sharply once more and shift the trend. Securing above the EMA lines would open the path to 158.88 and higher.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 158.18
• Res: 158.88
• Note: Look for short positions (sales) from the EMA lines with intraday confirmation. For buys, a successful move back above 158.55

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4631
• 前回終了: 4615
• 前日に%変動: -0.34 %

On Thursday, gold traded below the $4600 per ounce level as investors took profits following new all-time highs. A combination of resilient US labor market signals and easing political tensions weakened safe-haven demand. The significant decline in initial jobless claims to approximately 198,000 and continuing claims holding at 1.884 million confirmed that layoffs remain limited. This reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement rapid policy easing to support employment.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4577, 4550, 4517, 4483, 4438, 4400
• 抵抗レベル: 4630, 4650

The situation remains virtually unchanged on the hourly timeframe. Gold is forming a flat accumulation range between 4577 and 4634. The lower boundary can be confidently used for buy trades targeting the upper boundary, and vice versa. An impulsive breakout of the 4634 resistance would open the path to new highs. An impulsive break below 4577 would trigger a sell-off to 4549 or 4517. It is best to avoid trading in the middle of the range near 4600.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4577
• Res: 4630
• Note: Consider long positions (buys) from the lower boundary at 4577. Short positions (sales) are only relevant after an impulsive breakout of 4577.