主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.02.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1789
• 前回終了: 1.1772
• 前日に%変動: -0.14%

The Euro continues to trade under pressure slightly below the $1.18 mark as Trump’s 10% tariff comes into effect. The situation escalated following the European Parliament’s decision to freeze the trade agreement with the US, to which the White House responded with a threat to raise duties to 15%. Market focus is now shifting to inflation data from Germany and France: if the figures turn out weak, the ECB will be forced to ease policy, stripping the Euro of its support.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1776, 1.1742, 1.1726
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1809, 1.1850, 1.1894, 1.1955, 1.2050, 1.3000

Buyers showed initiative from 1.1776, after which the Euro headed for a test of the 1.1809 resistance level. It is important to evaluate the price reaction here: an impulsive breakout of the level will open the way to 1.1835 or even 1.1850. However, if sellers react with initiative at 1.1809, short sales can be considered intraday, followed by the formation of a consolidation.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1776
• Res: 1.1809
• Note: Сonsidering sell trades from the 1.1809 resistance level, but with confirmation and short targets. An impulsive breakout of the 1.1809 level will open the path to 1.1835.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3491
• 前回終了: 1.3486
• 前日に%変動: -0.04 %

The British Pound stabilized around $1.35 on Tuesday, holding near a monthly low. Pressure on the currency remains after the official implementation of Donald Trump’s new 10% global tariffs. Although the US President threatened over the weekend to raise the rate to 15%, the actual introduction of the 10% levy brought only limited relief to British businesses, as uncertainty regarding Washington’s future steps remains critically high. For British exporters whose products are already in production, sudden changes to the rules of the game imply unpredictability in margins and pricing. Experts estimate that if the tariff is indeed raised to 15%, additional costs for British companies exporting to the US could grow by £3 billion, which will inevitably impact the growth rate of the entire UK economy.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3479, 1.3426, 1.3401, 1.3381, 1.3292
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3535, 1.3558, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British Pound bounced off the 1.3479 support level and reached the target of 1.3535. The price is currently forming a flat accumulation within the range between these two levels. Today, the primary focus is on the price’s repeat reaction to the 1.3535 resistance level. An impulsive breakout of this level will open the way to 1.3558 or even 1.3582. If sellers react at 1.3535, the price will continue trading in consolidation.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3479
• Res: 1.3535
• Note: Сonsidering sell trades from the 1.3535 resistance level, but with confirmation and short targets. An impulsive breakout of the 1.3535 level will open the path to 1.3558 and higher.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 154.62
• 前回終了: 155.86
• 前日に%変動: +0.80 %

The Yen consolidated above the 156 per dollar mark, reacting to increased political pressure on the Bank of Japan. Reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed dissatisfaction to Kazuo Ueda regarding plans to tighten policy, along with the appointment of two aggressive stimulus supporters (Ayano Sato and Toichiro Asada) to the central bank board, caused markets to doubt a March rate hike. Despite news of the US Treasury’s readiness to coordinate interventions, the Yen remains weak due to the sharp contrast between the Fed’s “hawkish” stance and the reflationary rhetoric of the new Japanese cabinet.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 155.34, 154.86, 154.00, 152.61
• 抵抗レベル: 156.27, 157.37

The Japanese Yen unexpectedly strengthened impulsively above 155.31, which is a serious statement by buyers to sustain the upward movement. Today, traders’ attention is on the 155.34 support level: if buyers react here, intraday buys can be sought with a target to update the day’s high; however, if this level is broken impulsively, the price may correct sharply to 154.86 or lower.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 155.34
• Res: 156.27
• Note: Looking for intraday buys from the 155.34 support level, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for sales.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 5227
• 前回終了: 5144
• 前日に%変動: -1.61 %

On Tuesday, Gold showed a noticeable decline, losing almost 2% and dropping below the $5150 per ounce mark. This pullback interrupted a multi-day rally and was caused by a specific market rotation: investors began redistributing capital in favor of long-term US Treasuries. The yield on 10-year bonds fell below 4.05% – not because of faith in Fed easing, but due to fears that the rapid development of AI could destabilize traditional sectors of the economy, such as software development and payment systems. Despite the official implementation of Trump’s 10% global tariff and the preparation of an executive order to raise it to 15%, Gold did not receive its usual support.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 5119, 5060, 5038, 4960, 4907, 4842
• 抵抗レベル: 5242, 5450

After a liquidity test below the 5119 support level, buyers showed initiative, after which the price returned to growth. The intraday bias remains with the buyers. Under these market conditions, intraday buy trades should be considered with the aim of testing liquidity above 5247. Sell trades are possible only if sellers show initiative after the 5247 test.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 5119
• Res: 5242
• Note: Intraday, considering buys with a target up to 5247. For sales, evaluating the price reaction to the 5247 resistance level.