The EUR/USD currency pair
通貨ペアの技術指標:
- 前回開設: 1.1795
- 前回終了: 1.1799
- 前日に%変動: +0.03%
On Wednesday, the euro traded slightly below 1.18 dollars, approaching the levels seen before the outbreak of hostilities in late February. The single currency was supported by cautious optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations: mediators reported some progress. The very fact that talks are taking place has already affected markets: oil fell below 100 dollars per barrel, and risk appetite increased noticeably. At the same time, inflationary pressure fueled by expensive energy has not disappeared – markets are pricing in at least two ECB rate hikes by the end of the year. ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged on Tuesday that the energy shock has knocked the eurozone off its planned economic trajectory, but refrained from giving any signals about imminent tightening.
取引のお薦め
- サポートレベル: 1.1775, 1.1722, 1.1643, 1.1605
- 抵抗レベル: 1.1827, 1.1849, 1.1894
The euro is forming a flat accumulation range between 1.1775 and 1.1827. The intraday bias remains bullish, but the MACD divergence should not be ignored. Under such market conditions, long trades are considered from 1.1775, but with confirmation. For selling, evaluate price reaction at 1.1827.
別のシナリオ:- Trend: Up
- Sup: 1.1775
- Res: 1.1827
- Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1775 with confirmation. For selling, evaluate price reaction at 1.1827.
ニュースフィード：: 2026.04.16
- Eurozone Inflation Rate (w/w) at 12:00 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3) – EUR (MED)
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
The GBP/USD currency pair
通貨ペアの技術指標:
- 前回開設: 1.3571
- 前回終了: 1.3562
- 前日に%変動: -0.07%
The British pound held slightly below 1.36 dollars, approaching its highest levels since mid‑February amid mixed market signals. On one hand, traders noted some progress in US-Iran negotiations. On the other hand, tensions remain: Washington plans to deploy another 10,000 troops to the region, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Additional attention is focused on the upcoming meeting between UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the IMF and World Bank spring sessions in Washington. The talks are taking place in a difficult atmosphere: recent statements by Trump have strained relations between the countries and cast doubt on the trade agreement signed last year.
取引のお薦め
- サポートレベル: 1.3508, 1.3478, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
- 抵抗レベル: 1.3590, 1.3631
The British pound is stuck at the resistance level of 1.3590. Typically, when the price sticks to a level, the probability of a breakout increases. But given the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a false breakout. Under such market conditions, long trades should be considered only after a correction to the support at 1.3508. For selling, wait for seller initiative from 1.3590 or 1.3631.
別のシナリオ:- Trend: Up
- Sup: 1.3508
- Res: 1.3590
- Note: Long trades should be considered only after a correction to 1.3508. For selling, wait for seller initiative from 1.3590 or 1.3631.
ニュースフィード：: 2026.04.16
- UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
- UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3) – GBP (MED)
The USD/JPY currency pair
通貨ペアの技術指標:
- 前回開設: 158.77
- 前回終了: 158.97
- 前日に%変動: +0.12%
On Thursday, the Japanese yen strengthened to 158.8 per dollar, recovering after recent weakening. The main impulse for strengthening came from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama’s statements about detailed consultations on currency policy with her US counterpart Scott Bessent. Katayama confirmed the authorities’ determination to intervene if exchange‑rate volatility becomes excessive, which investors interpreted as a direct threat of intervention near the psychological level of 160 yen. The International Monetary Fund added clarity, stating that the Bank of Japan can afford to ignore the inflation spike caused by events in Iran. According to IMF experts, current energy‑price pressure is temporary and does not affect core inflation, meaning the regulator can continue gradual monetary tightening without abrupt moves.
取引のお薦め
- サポートレベル: 158.02
- 抵抗レベル: 159.11, 159.34, 159.97, 160.46
Technically, sellers are beginning to take intraday initiative. Buyers failed to keep the price above 158.65, which potentially opens the way toward 158.02. For selling, it is best to focus on the EMA lines or the resistance level of 159.11, but with confirmation. Long trades are appropriate only after the price consolidates above 159.11.
別のシナリオ:- Trend: Neutral
- Sup: 158.02
- Res: 159.11
- Note: For selling, focus on the EMA lines or 159.11 with confirmation. Long trades are appropriate only after consolidation above 159.11.
本日のニュースはありません
The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)
通貨ペアの技術指標:
- 前回開設: 4842
- 前回終了: 4791
- 前日に%変動: -1.06%
On Wednesday, gold traded around 4,820 dollars per ounce, holding near its monthly high. Investors are closely monitoring diplomatic efforts to end the large‑scale conflict in the Middle East. Although President Donald Trump expressed confidence that a final deal is near, market tension remains. An additional stabilizing factor is the softening of monetary‑policy expectations. The US Federal Reserve is acting cautiously, analyzing the conflict’s impact on supply chains and inflation, which reduces the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes in the near future. It is worth noting that despite the current recovery, gold still trades about 10% below pre‑war levels.
取引のお薦め
- サポートレベル: 4789, 4700, 4608
- 抵抗レベル: 4857, 4900, 4963
Technically, a flat accumulation is forming between 4789 and 4857. Buyers must keep the price above 4789 to maintain upward momentum. Otherwise, consolidation below 4789 may lead to a sharp sell‑off toward 4750 or even 4700. For long trades, evaluate price reaction at 4789 with a target toward 4857 and higher.
別のシナリオ:- Trend: Up
- Sup: 4789
- Res: 4857
- Note: For long trades, evaluate price reaction at 4789 with a target toward 4857 and higher. Consolidation below 4789 may lead to a sharp sell‑off toward 4750 or even 4700.
ニュースフィード：: 2026.04.16
- US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
- US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3) – USD (LOW)
- US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+3) – USD (MED)
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