主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.04.22

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1785
• 前回終了: 1.1742
• 前日に%変動: -0.36%

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD pair reached a weekly low amid extremely weak ZEW survey data in Germany. German investor optimism collapsed to 17.2, the worst reading in more than three years and significantly below analysts’ already pessimistic prognosis. The prolonged Middle East conflict and the ongoing supply blockade will finally undermine Germany’s industrial sector, which is already in a vulnerable state. Additional pressure on the euro came from the recovery in crude oil prices, which rose more than 2% by the end of the session. Given the Eurozone’s high dependence on energy imports, rising oil prices are seen as a serious drag on regional economic growth, accelerating the sell‑off in the currency amid a strengthening US dollar.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1729, 1.1643, 1.1605
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro tested liquidity below the 1.1729 support level, where buyers showed initiative. With high probability, the price will begin distributing liquidity above 1.1791. Under such market conditions, long trades are best considered intraday from 1.1729 or from the EMA lines after the price consolidates above the moving averages. For selling, evaluate price reaction at the 1.1791 resistance level, while buyers must prevent the price from consolidating below 1.1729.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1729
• Res: 1.1791
• Note: Long trades are best considered intraday from 1.1729 or from the EMA lines after consolidation above the averages. For selling, evaluate the reaction at 1.1791.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3532
• 前回終了: 1.3506
• 前日に%変動: -0.19%

Labor‑market data from the UK, showing a decline in unemployment alongside slowing wage growth and fewer vacancies, was largely ignored by traders. The market understands that this data reflects “pre‑war” conditions and does not account for the current supply shock and inflationary pressure caused by the escalation with Iran, making the Bank of England’s next steps highly unpredictable.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3474, 1.3445, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3541, 1.3590, 1.3631

The British pound is consolidating in the 1.3474-1.3541 range. After testing the lower boundary, the price is now moving toward the liquidity test above 1.3541, where price action must be evaluated. Under such market conditions, long trades should be considered only after consolidation above 1.3541 with a target of 1.3590. Short trades may be considered from 1.3541 in case of a false breakout.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3474
• Res: 1.3541
• Note: Long trades should be considered after consolidation above 1.3541 with a target of 1.3590. Short trades may be considered from 1.3541 on a false breakout.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 158.76
• 前回終了: 159.34
• 前日に%変動: +0.36%

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen stabilized around 159.2 per dollar, ending a two‑day decline. Investors adopted a wait‑and‑see stance ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting, where the regulator will likely keep the rate at 0.75% to assess the damage from the Middle East conflict. Despite the April pause, markets are pricing in a potential hawkish shift in June, as the Bank of Japan is forced to revise macroeconomic expectations: inflation projections are expected to be raised, while GDP‑growth expectations will likely be lowered due to shock energy prices. Japan’s economy is supported by external trade – exports have grown for seven consecutive months thanks to strong demand from China and ASEAN. However, this positive factor is overshadowed by the strengthening US dollar, driven by the diplomatic failure in Islamabad.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 159.01, 158.55, 158.27
• 抵抗レベル: 159.46, 159.97

After testing liquidity above 159.46, sellers showed initiative, increasing the likelihood of a decline toward 159.01 to distribute captured liquidity and test new levels. Therefore, today the focus is on price reaction at the 159.01 support level. If buyers show initiative, intraday long trades may be considered with targets at 159.46 and higher. A breakout of 159.01 on impulse will open the way toward 158.55.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.01
• Res: 159.46
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 159.01 with confirmation. A breakout of 159.01 on impulse opens the way toward 158.55.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4825
• 前回終了: 4718
• 前日に%変動: -2.26%

On Wednesday, gold prices recovered above 4,750 dollars per ounce, retracing part of the losses amid conflicting news from the conflict zone. The rise was triggered by Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily extend the ceasefire to give Tehran time to form a “unified proposal” for a peace settlement. However, this optimism is offset by the complete collapse of the diplomatic track in Pakistan: Vice President J.D. Vance canceled his visit to Islamabad after Iran officially refused to participate in negotiations. The deadlock is worsened by Tehran’s firm stance – it refuses to unblock the Strait of Hormuz until the US Navy stops intercepting vessels in the region. Fundamental pressure on gold comes from the US, where Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh took a hard line on inflation during Senate hearings. His promise to create a new system to combat persistent price growth and his emphasis on the regulator’s independence signal readiness to keep interest rates high for an extended period.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4700, 4608
• 抵抗レベル: 4798, 4825, 4857, 4900, 4963

Gold fell sharply yesterday and reached the liquidity pool below 4700, where buyers reacted aggressively. Typically, after such tests, the price tends to distribute captured liquidity above resistance levels, so there is a high probability of growth toward 4798. Under such market conditions, intraday long trades should target the liquidity test above 4798. For selling, evaluate price reaction at 4798: if sellers are active there, the price may quickly drop back.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4700
• Res: 4798
• Note: Intraday long trades may target 4798. For selling, evaluate reaction at 4798 – if sellers are active, the price may drop sharply.