主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.04.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1687
• 前回終了: 1.1720
• 前日に%変動: +0.28%

The euro has climbed above 1.17 dollars, showing an attempt to recover after falling to a two‑week low. Against the backdrop of geopolitical expectations, investors’ focus is shifting to the upcoming ECB meeting. Although most analysts expect rates to remain unchanged, the regulator’s rhetoric may become more hawkish. The ECB is forced to consider that the prolonged Middle East conflict and high prices for imported oil are creating new pro‑inflationary risks that were not fully accounted for in previous expectations. Money markets already show confidence in the need for further monetary tightening. At the moment, two 25‑basis‑point rate hikes in 2026 are fully priced in, and the probability of a third hike by year‑end is considered quite high. This shift in expectations supports the euro, counterbalancing the strengthening dollar.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1719, 1.1693, 1.1678, 1.1643, 1.1605
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1763, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro opened Monday with a downside gap, but it was quickly filled, after which the price impulsively consolidated above 1.1719. Under such market conditions, if buyers manage to keep the price above 1.1719, further growth toward 1.1763 can be expected. If the price falls back below 1.1719 on impulse, intraday short trades toward 1.1693 or 1.1678 may be considered.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1719
• Res: 1.1763
• Note: Long trades are best considered from 1.1719 with confirmation. A breakout below 1.1719 will open the way toward 1.1693 or 1.1678.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3465
• 前回終了: 1.3531
• 前日に%変動: +0.49%

The yield on 10‑year UK government bonds has stabilized at critical levels above 4.95%, corresponding to the highs of the 2008 global financial crisis. Despite a slight correction at the end of the week, the bond market remains under heavy pressure due to revised interest‑rate expectations. This week, the Bank of England is expected to keep the rate at 3.75%, though internal disagreement within the Monetary Policy Committee is possible. The British pound stabilized around 1.35 dollars, rebounding from two‑week lows.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3541, 1.3474, 1.3447, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3501, 1.3590, 1.3631

The British pound has reached the 1.3541 resistance level. It is crucial to evaluate price action here: a breakout and impulsive consolidation above this level will open the way toward 1.3590, while a seller reaction at 1.3541 will trigger a decline toward 1.3501.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3541
• Res: 1.3501
• Note: A breakout above 1.3541 on impulse will open the way toward 1.3590. Intraday short trades may be considered from 1.3541 if sellers react.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 159.56
• 前回終了: 159.35
• 前日に%変動: -0.13%

This week in Japan, all attention is on Tuesday’s Bank of Japan meeting, where the regulator is expected to keep the base rate at 0.75%. With core Tokyo inflation rising to 1.8% and overall uncertainty due to the Strait of Hormuz conflict, the regulator must balance between supporting the economy and protecting the yen from further depreciation. The Bank of Japan is expected to sharply revise its 2026 inflation prognosis upward while lowering its economic‑growth prediction. If, at the post‑meeting press conference, Governor Ueda signals that the rate will be raised to 1.00% in June, the yen may experience a strong rally, potentially pushing USD/JPY lower. However, if the Bank of Japan remains overly cautious due to “geopolitical uncertainty,” the yen may weaken further, testing the intervention threshold at 160.00.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 159.01, 158.55, 158.27
• 抵抗レベル: 159.31, 159.86, 160.03

The yen has consolidated below 159.31, which could lead to further strengthening toward 159.01. The intraday bias favors sellers. Under such conditions, short trades are appropriate from 159.31 if sellers react. If buyers manage to push the price back above 159.31 and consolidate above the descending trendline, the intraday bias will shift bullish, opening opportunities for long trades toward 159.65 and higher.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.01
• Res: 159.31
• Note: Short trades are appropriate from 159.31 with confirmation. For long trades, the price must consolidate above the descending trendline.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4700
• 前回終了: 4708
• 前日に%変動: +0.17%

On Monday, gold showed a sharp reversal, rising again above the psychological level of 4,700 dollars per ounce. The metal’s intraday dynamics fully mirrored the diplomatic duel between Washington and Tehran, confirming gold’s status as the main indicator of geopolitical anxiety. The morning decline was triggered by Donald Trump’s decision to cancel the US delegation’s visit to Islamabad, which markets interpreted as a risk of immediate escalation. However, prices recovered after news of Iran’s “Pakistan proposal.” Tehran’s willingness to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz and extending the ceasefire restored hope for a peaceful scenario, while simultaneously reminding investors of the fragility of the situation. The prolonged conflict and the ninth week of energy‑supply shock are fueling inflation. This forces markets to price in a longer period of high interest rates, which traditionally reduces the appeal of non‑yielding gold.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4740, 4670, 4608
• 抵抗レベル: 4772, 4798, 4825, 4857, 4900, 4963

Gold has managed to consolidate above the round level of 4700, but sellers are again showing initiative at 4740. The price is forming a flat accumulation with elements of a narrowing triangle. Under such conditions, as long as the price remains inside the triangle, it is appropriate to trade from boundary to boundary. An upside breakout on impulse will open space for growth toward 4772 and higher. The longer the price accumulates liquidity inside the triangle, the stronger the eventual breakout will be.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4670
• Res: 4740
• Note: Intraday short trades may be considered from the upper boundary of the triangle near 4740. An impulsive breakout above 4740 will open the way toward 4772.