主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.04.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1723
• 前回終了: 1.1712
• 前日に%変動: +0.23%

Inflation expectations in the Eurozone showed record growth, reminding markets of the shocks of early 2022. Short‑term consumer expectations for the next 12 months jumped to 4.0% from 2.5% in February. Such a sharp surge is directly linked to the ninth week of the conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to fuel shortages and a rapid increase in logistics costs. A worrying signal for the ECB is the rise not only in short‑term but also in long‑term predictions.

Three‑year prognosis rose to 3.0%, and five‑year ones to 2.4%, well above the regulator’s 2% target. This indicates that households no longer believe inflation is “temporary” and are beginning to price high costs into long‑term behavior. This report practically deprives the ECB of room for maneuver this week. Christine Lagarde is expected to take an extremely hawkish stance to prevent further inflation spiraling, even despite the threat of recession in the region.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1678, 1.1643, 1.1605
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1716, 1.1763, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro still cannot consolidate above 1.1716. Sellers are actively defending this level, opening opportunities for intraday shorts. Short trades may be considered from 1.1716 or from the EMA lines with confirmation. Profit target: 1.1678. Longs are appropriate only if the price impulsively consolidates above 1.1716.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1678
• Res: 1.1716
• Note: Long trades are best considered after the price re‑establishes itself above 1.1716. While the price is below 1.1716, look for intraday short setups.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3535
• 前回終了: 1.3517
• 前日に%変動: -0.13%

The British pound corrected to 1.35 dollars, caught in the crossfire of geopolitics and domestic political crisis. The currency is reacting to the failure of another attempt to reach an agreement with Tehran: Donald Trump’s refusal to accept Iran’s proposal on the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil prices at peak levels, signaling a prolonged period of expensive energy for the UK economy. Domestically, attention is focused on Westminster. Today, Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces a critical parliamentary vote. MPs will decide whether to launch an investigation into his statements regarding the Peter Mandelson case. Despite Labour’s confidence in victory, the scandal delivers a serious reputational blow to the government just days before local elections next week. Against this turbulence, the Bank of England prepares for Thursday’s meeting. If Starmer loses the vote or the Bank of England issues an unexpectedly hawkish signal, the pound may quickly test new local lows.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3447, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3525, 1.3541, 1.3590, 1.3631

The pound, like the euro, declined amid moderate USD strength. The key level of interest is 1.3525, where sellers are actively defending. As long as the price remains below this level, intraday short setups are appropriate. Profit target: 1.3447. Longs become relevant only if the price impulsively consolidates above 1.3525.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3447
• Res: 1.3525
• Note: Intraday shorts from 1.3525 or from EMAs with confirmation. Longs return only after consolidation above 1.3525.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 159.39
• 前回終了: 159.61
• 前日に%変動: +0.14%

The yen is hovering around 159.6 per dollar, approaching the psychological barrier of 160. The currency remains under pressure despite the Bank of Japan’s hawkish tone. The BoJ kept the rate at 0.75% but faced serious internal division: three board members openly called for an immediate hike. The regulator was forced to sharply raise its 2026 inflation outlook due to the price shock caused by the ninth week of the Strait of Hormuz conflict. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed readiness for further tightening if war‑related inflation pressures continue to grow. Amid market volatility, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed that the government maintains a “red‑button mode” for FX interventions. Investors are extremely cautious ahead of holidays, waiting to see whether Tokyo will intervene if USD/JPY reaches 160.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 159.42, 159.01, 158.55, 158.27
• 抵抗レベル: 159.86, 160.03

The yen is moving toward the psychological 160 level, where authorities have signaled readiness for intervention. Intraday bias favors buyers. Under such conditions, intraday long trades may be considered from EMAs or from 159.42 with targets at 159.86 or 160.03. There are no optimal short setups now, as a supply zone and seller reaction are required.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.42
• Res: 159.86
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 159.42 or EMAs with confirmation. No optimal short entries at the moment.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4684
• 前回終了: 4596
• 前日に%変動: -1.91%

Gold extended its decline, breaking the psychological level and falling below 4600 dollars per ounce. This is the lowest level in a month, driven by a combination of diplomatic deadlock and hawkish expectations from global central banks. The main negative signal came from news that Donald Trump rejected Tehran’s de‑escalation terms in the Persian Gulf. This effectively means continued naval blockade and oil prices near 100 dollars, guaranteeing high inflation in the coming months. The ongoing rise in energy prices forces central banks to prepare for another tightening cycle. Since gold does not generate coupon income, the prospect of prolonged high rates (or further hikes) makes it less competitive compared to bonds.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4554, 4528
• 抵抗レベル: 4608, 4643, 4670, 4701, 4772, 4798, 4825

Gold continues to decline. The price has consolidated below 4600, with all prerequisites for further decline toward 4528. Intraday, it is best to focus on shorts from EMAs or from the 4643-4662 supply zone. There are no optimal long entries now.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4554
• Res: 4608
• Note: Intraday shorts may be considered from 4608 or EMAs with confirmation. No optimal long setups at the moment.