主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.05.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1744
• 前回終了: 1.1724
• 前日に%変動: -0.17%

The euro strengthened to around 1.18 dollars, reaching its highest level in almost a month amid declining demand for the US dollar as a safe‑haven asset. Investor sentiment improved thanks to expectations of a possible agreement between the US and Iran, which could help restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ease restrictions on Iranian ports. At the same time, market participants adjusted their expectations regarding European Central Bank policy. Investors now anticipate two rate hikes by the end of the year, with a high probability of the first step already in the summer. ECB officials continue to point to persistent inflationary pressure, which reinforces expectations of further monetary tightening.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1724, 1.1695, 1.1559, 1.1605
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1752, 1.1776, 1.1791, 1.1823, 1.1849, 1.1894

The euro corrected to the support level of 1.1724, where buyers showed a moderate reaction. The intraday bias is shifting to buyers, increasing the likelihood of growth toward 1.1752. It is important for buyers to hold 1.1724; otherwise, an impulsive breakout of this level will lead to further decline toward 1.1695.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1724
• Res: 1.1752
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1724 with a target of 1.1752 and higher. An impulsive breakout of 1.1724 may lead to a drop toward 1.1695.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3587
• 前回終了: 1.3551
• 前日に%変動: -0.26%

The British pound strengthened above 1.36 dollars, reaching its highest level since mid‑February amid weakening demand for the dollar as a safe‑haven asset. Markets were supported by optimism around a possible agreement between the US and Iran, which could lead to a gradual restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and easing of restrictions on Iranian ports.

Additional attention in the UK is focused on elections in England, Scotland, and Wales, the results of which are seen as an important test for Keir Starmer’s government. Polls indicate a possible decline in support for the Labour Party amid dissatisfaction with some economic decisions and tax policy.

Meanwhile, expectations for Bank of England monetary policy have become more moderate: markets now price in two rate hikes by year‑end instead of the more aggressive expectations seen earlier.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3563, 1.3514, 1.3463, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3585, 1.3637, 1.3670

The SMT divergence between the British pound and the euro worked perfectly: the price corrected deeply and reached the liquidity pool below 1.3563. The intraday bias favors buyers, so today a rise toward 1.3585 is very likely, where it is important to assess seller reaction.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3563
• Res: 1.3585
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3563 with a target of 1.3585 and higher. For selling, evaluate price reaction to zones above 1.3585.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 156.35
• 前回終了: 156.88
• 前日に%変動: +0.34%

On Friday, the yen traded around 157 per dollar. Tokyo’s attempts to support the national currency through verbal interventions brought no results: the statement by currency chief Atsushi Mimura about readiness to conduct operations of any frequency and maintain constant contact with the US only temporarily restrained traders. Domestic economic data is trying to support the yen: real wages in Japan have been rising for three consecutive months, giving the Bank of Japan strong grounds for further rate hikes. However, this positive factor is overshadowed by powerful external pressure. The US dollar remains the favorite among investors amid the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, where direct clashes between US and Iranian forces support demand for safe‑haven assets and high energy prices.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 156.06, 155.49, 154.86
• 抵抗レベル: 157.03, 157.75, 158.55

Today, traders are focused on the resistance level of 157.03. This level is important because it is, first, a psychological round level; second, an options level; and third, the start of an impulsive move on the M5-M15 time frames. Therefore, it is important to assess how the price reacts to it: if sellers show sharp activity, this will open opportunities for selling toward 156.35 and lower;
– if sellers do not react at 157.03, the price will very likely continue rising toward 157.75.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 156.06
• Res: 157.03
• Note: a break below 157.03 will open the way for the price to rise to 157.75. If sellers react at 157.03, however, intraday selling down to 156.06 could be considered

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4696
• 前回終了: 4688
• 前日に%変動: -0.17%

Gold prices held above 4700 dollars per ounce, showing increased volatility amid renewed clashes in the Persian Gulf. Hopes for a quick diplomatic resolution were shaken after reports from US Central Command about intercepting Iranian attacks and carrying out retaliatory strikes. The presence of US missile destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz underscores the seriousness of the situation, although Washington states it does not seek further escalation. Despite the current rebound, gold is still trading 10% below its peak levels from the beginning of the year. The historic surge in oil and gas prices caused by supply disruptions through the strait triggered a powerful inflationary impulse. This forces investors to price in higher interest rates, which traditionally limits the growth potential of precious metals, even despite their safe‑haven status.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4679, 4611, 4554, 4518
• 抵抗レベル: 4730, 4772

Gold fell slightly short of the liquidity zone above 4772 and corrected to 4679, where buyers showed activity. Today, traders assess the price reaction at 4730. A breakout of this intraday level will open the way toward 4772, where active selling may appear. If sellers react strongly at 4730, the price may correct deeper.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 4679
• Res: 4730
• Note: Long positions are possible after the price consolidates above 4730. For selling, evaluate price reaction at 4730 or 4772.