主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.05.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1620
• 前回終了: 1.1602
• 前日に%変動: -0.16%

In the first quarter of 2026, wage growth in the Eurozone slowed to 2.5% year‑on‑year, significantly below the 2024 peak (5.6%) and the previous reading (2.9%). This trend reduces labor‑related inflationary pressure, giving the European Central Bank room to avoid the most aggressive monetary tightening scenarios despite serious risks stemming from the energy shock. Nevertheless, the ECB remains cautious: current Eurozone inflation at 3% is noticeably above the 2% target, forcing the regulator to consider a rate hike at the June meeting. At the same time, experts urge caution, pointing to weak business activity indicators (PMI), which signal the risk of a significant economic downturn.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1630, 1.1583, 1.1547
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1657, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

Monday opened with an upward price gap. The euro opened above 1.1630, and now buyers will defend the area below this level for further growth. It is also worth paying attention to volume spikes followed by impulsive upward movements inside the accumulation zone 1.1583-1.1630. As a rule, this may indicate an accumulation phase followed by a breakout to start a trend phase. Under such market conditions, intraday trades should focus on buying from EMA lines or from the area below 1.1630 with a target of 1.1657 and higher. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 1.1657.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1630
• Res: 1.1657
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from EMA lines or from below 1.1630 with a target of 1.1657 and above. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 1.1657.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3426
• 前回終了: 1.3429
• 前日に%変動: +0.02%

By the end of the week, the British pound consolidated slightly above 1.34 amid a cascade of disappointing macroeconomic data. Retail sales in April fell by 1.3%, twice the analysts’ expectations, largely due to a sharp drop in fuel demand caused by rising prices. The situation was worsened by a significant increase in the budget deficit, which reached £24.3 billion in April – the highest for this month since 2020, far exceeding expectations. These indicators, along with slowing inflation, cooling labor market conditions, and negative May PMI data, forced investors to revise expectations regarding the Bank of England toward a more dovish stance.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3453, 1.3400, 1.3381, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3491, 1.3550, 1.3596

The British pound looks more confident than the euro. The price managed to impulsively consolidate above 1.3453, indicating a strong bullish bias. But now the price has approached the resistance level of 1.3491, and considering the MACD divergence, a correction or sideways movement is possible during the day. For buying, it is best to wait for a pullback to the EMA lines or to the support level 1.3453. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 1.3491.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3453
• Res: 1.3491
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.3453 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 1.3491.

 

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 158.93
• 前回終了: 159.20
• 前日に%変動: +0.17%

Market confidence (80%) is growing that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at the mid‑June meeting. This expectation is supported by a recent split within the board, where some members have already advocated for tightening. The move is expected to be part of a strategy to combat inflation and support the yen. The conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have hit Japan’s energy supplies. In April, LNG imports from Middle Eastern countries fell by 76% year‑on‑year. Japan is forced to urgently diversify supplies to compensate for the deficit caused by the blockage of key transport routes.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 158.65, 158.28, 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• 抵抗レベル: 159.14, 159.42

The situation in the currency pair has barely changed. The yen has clearly defined the boundaries of the sideways corridor 158.65-159.14 and has been trading within it since May 18. Sellers are trying hard to defend 159.14, while buyers are not allowing the price to fall below 158.65. Monday opened with a downward gap, which may potentially lead to a decline toward 158.85, where buying opportunities may be considered – but only with confirmation from buyer reaction.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 158.65
• Res: 159.14
• Note: Buying is appropriate from 158.65, but with confirmation. Selling is appropriate intraday from EMA lines down to 158.65.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4542
• 前回終了: 4508
• 前日に%変動: -0.75%

On Monday, May 25, 2026, gold prices recovered to $4600 per ounce, almost fully offsetting last week’s losses. The main driver of optimism on commodity exchanges was the details of a possible diplomatic agreement between Washington and Tehran. The easing of the geopolitical crisis immediately led to a decline in oil prices, reducing panic over a potential inflation shock. However, gold buyers remain cautious, as Donald Trump made it clear that the US naval blockade of the strait will not be lifted until Iran signs the final document. Despite Monday’s rebound, gold is still trading about 13% below pre‑crisis highs. Investors are forced to price in the long‑term macroeconomic consequences of the 10‑week blockade.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4506, 4431, 4350
• 抵抗レベル: 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold is trading within a wide‑range sideways channel with boundaries 4506-4581. On Monday, the market opened with an upward gap, leading to a test of 4581. Considering today is a banking holiday in the US and major European economies, the price will likely remain range‑bound within the corridor toward the EMA lines. Under such market conditions, intraday buying from EMA lines is preferable, but with confirmation. For selling, the area above 4581 remains relevant.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4506
• Res: 4581
• Note: Intraday long positions are possible from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For selling, the area above 4581 remains relevant.