主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.06.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1651
• 前回終了: 1.1660
• 前日に%変動: +0.08%

The euro exchange rate stabilized at 1.165 dollars, recording a moderate monthly decline of 0.8% against the US dollar. Market participants simultaneously assessed mixed inflation data from the Eurozone, geopolitical insights from the Middle East, and new hotspots of tension in Eastern Europe. The main macroeconomic trigger for the single currency was the preliminary May inflation data in the EU. Harmonized inflation accelerated in France, Italy, and Spain, while in Germany, on the contrary, a slowdown emerged. Despite the heterogeneity of the data, key indicators in all major European economies remain significantly above the ECB’s 2% target, which continues to exert strong pressure on the regulator.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1629, 1.1607, 1.1586, 1.1547
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1657, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

From a technical analysis perspective, the euro impulsively broke above 1.1657 on Friday, but on Monday, the market opened below this level. Considering the MACD divergence, the price corrected to the EMA lines, but the medium‑term bias remains with buyers. Under such market conditions, long positions are appropriate after a repeated consolidation above 1.1657 or from the support level at 1.1629, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1629
• Res: 1.1657
• Note: Long positions are appropriate after a repeated consolidation above 1.1657 or from 1.1629 with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3441
• 前回終了: 1.3454
• 前日に%変動: +0.10%

The British pound stabilized around 1.3450 USD, ending the month with a decline of more than 1%. Pressure on the UK’s national currency came from a combination of domestic political, macroeconomic, and external factors that forced investors to reassess their long‑term expectations. A serious blow to the pound’s position was the increase in domestic political uncertainty after the Labour Party of incumbent Prime Minister Keir Starmer suffered a painful defeat in local elections. Deep structural problems in the UK further exacerbated the vulnerability of the national currency. The British economy has become hostage to the absence of large technology companies in its indices – companies capable of benefiting from the global AI boom – against the backdrop of high dependence on energy imports and widespread business pessimism regarding economic growth. In the Bank of England’s monetary policy, a clear shift toward a “dovish” scenario has also emerged.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3450, 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3507, 1.3550, 1.3596

On Friday, the British pound impulsively consolidated above 1.3450. Technically, the intraday bias remains with buyers, so today it is reasonable to focus on long positions. The most optimal entry points are the support level at 1.3450 or the EMA lines. For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.3483.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3450
• Res: 1.3483
• Note: Long positions are best considered from 1.3450 or from the EMA lines with confirmation. For selling, evaluate the reaction at 1.3483.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 159.21
• 前回終了: 159.26
• 前日に%変動: +0.03%

The Japanese yen is showing elevated volatility around 159.5 yen per dollar, continuing to hover dangerously close to the psychologically important 160 level. This mark previously served as the very “red line” beyond which Tokyo launched large‑scale actions to defend the national currency. The intrigue surrounding the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s previous actions was finally resolved on Friday, when the agency published official regulatory data. The report fully confirmed the rumors circulating in the market: during covert currency interventions at the end of April, the Japanese authorities spent a record 11.7 trillion yen on direct support of the yen, exceeding analysts’ initial expectations. Despite the colossal volume of reserves spent, the yen quickly returned to local lows due to persistent divergence in investor expectations regarding the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s June meeting.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 159.14, 158.65, 158.28, 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• 抵抗レベル: 159.86

From a technical analysis standpoint, the Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar. On Friday, the price corrected to the support level at 159.14, where good entry points could be found after a liquidity test below. Today, for long positions, the EMA lines should be considered, but with confirmation. The profit target remains the resistance at 159.86. However, sudden government interventions to support the currency should not be ruled out.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 159.14
• Res: 159.86
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 159.14 or from the EMA lines with a target of 159.86. Sudden government interventions cannot be ruled out.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4499
• 前回終了: 4540
• 前日に%変動: +0.91%

On Friday, gold prices rose for the second consecutive session and reached 4,580 dollars per troy ounce amid optimistic news about a possible extension of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Diplomatic efforts to end the three‑month war led to a preliminary agreement on a 60‑day moratorium for official negotiations, although final approval from President Donald Trump is still pending. The main obstacle to a sustainable gold rally remains high inflationary risks, as large‑scale destruction of transport and energy infrastructure in the Middle East may keep oil prices elevated for a long time. An additional restraining factor for the gold rally is weak physical demand in key Asian markets. In India, buyer activity remains subdued due to record‑high prices and strict import duties, while in China, the world’s largest consumer of the precious metal, dealers report declining spot premiums amid deteriorating market sentiment and cautious local investors.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4496, 4458, 4350, 4304
• 抵抗レベル: 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold reached the liquidity zone above 4581, where sellers became active, after which the price corrected to the EMA lines. However, the medium‑term bias remains bullish. Under such market conditions, intraday focus should be on long positions from the support levels 4496 or 4458, but with confirmation. It is important for buyers to keep the price above 4458; otherwise, the imbalance will shift to the sellers’ side. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4496
• Res: 4591
• Note: Intraday long positions should be considered from the EMA lines or from 4496 or 4458. There are no optimal entry points for selling.