主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.06.03

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1630
• 前回終了: 1.1632
• 前日に%変動: +0.02%

The euro stabilized around 1.1630, as investors priced in a strong pro‑inflation Eurostat report and attempted to interpret conflicting geopolitical signals from the Middle East. Eurozone consumer inflation surged to 3.2% YoY in May, marking the highest level in two and a half years amid a sharp rise in oil prices. Core inflation accelerated more than expected to 2.5%, while services inflation climbed to 3.5%, confirming entrenched price pressures in the real sector of the European economy. As a result, money markets now assign a record 95% probability to a 25‑basis‑point ECB rate hike at the June 11 meeting.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1607, 1.1586, 1.1547
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1630, 1.1651, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

The euro once again consolidated below 1.1630, which may potentially lead to a decline toward 1.1607. However, a renewed breakout above 1.1630 could trigger growth toward 1.1651. Overall, traders should focus on how the price behaves relative to the 1.1630 level today.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1607
• Res: 1.1630
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.1607, but only with confirmation. A repeated breakout above 1.1630 may trigger a new bullish wave toward 1.1651 and higher.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3454
• 前回終了: 1.3464
• 前日に%変動: +0.07%

The UK’s domestic economic backdrop is forcing the Bank of England to balance on the edge of stagflation, limiting the pound’s upside potential. Fears of a new wave of imported inflation due to elevated energy prices have pushed money markets to fully price in two rate hikes by the end of 2026, with the first one expected in September with 100% certainty. The British regulator finds itself in a highly vulnerable position, as the need to combat rising price pressures now directly clashes with early signs of labor‑market cooling, which is weakening under the burden of high rates and falling consumer confidence.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3450, 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3507, 1.3550, 1.3596

The British pound looks more resilient than the euro. The pair is trading within the 1.3450-1.3483 range. The 1.3450 support level will serve as today’s key reference point. If buyers react to 1.3450 after a liquidity test, intraday long positions toward the upper boundary may be considered. A momentum‑driven breakdown of 1.3450 would trigger selling toward 1.3412.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3450
• Res: 1.3483
• Note: Long positions are best considered from 1.3450, but only with confirmation. A momentum breakdown of 1.3450 will trigger selling toward 1.3412.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 159.65
• 前回終了: 159.88
• 前日に%変動: +0.14%

The Japanese yen crossed a critical psychological threshold, weakening to 160 per dollar. Reaching this “red line,” which has historically triggered direct FX interventions by Tokyo, prompted immediate and stern warnings from the government. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued an emergency statement, reiterating that monetary authorities remain fully prepared to conduct direct market operations at any moment to suppress speculative or excessive currency volatility. The fact that the yen returned to this level despite massive Ministry of Finance interventions underscores the strength of fundamental downward pressure on the currency. Under these conditions, investors are almost certain that the Bank of Japan will be forced to tighten policy urgently.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 159.86, 159.55, 159.14, 158.65, 158.28, 158.00, 157.33
• 抵抗レベル: 160.46

The yen continues to weaken against the US dollar. The price reached the 159.86 resistance level and even tested the psychological 160 mark, but no significant reaction followed. Technically, the bullish trend remains intact, and intraday bias stays with buyers. Under current market conditions, the price may continue rising toward 160.46. EMA lines and the 159.86 / 159.65 levels will serve as support for further upside. The only factor that could break this scenario is a sudden FX intervention, which is highly likely at these levels.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 159.86
• Res: 160.46
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 159.86 or EMA lines, but only with confirmation. Sudden government intervention should not be ruled out.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4486
• 前回終了: 4488
• 前日に%変動: +0.04%

Gold prices completely lost their early‑morning bullish momentum and collapsed to $4470 per ounce during the first trading session of the summer, approaching their lowest levels since late March. The main driver behind the sell‑off was a sharp rise in inflation expectations, forcing investors to price in a prolonged period of tight monetary policy from major global central banks. Bond‑market sentiment has also tightened significantly: investors now assign roughly a 60% probability to at least one additional Fed rate hike before the end of 2026. The key macroeconomic focus of the week now shifts to the US labor market report (Non‑Farm Payrolls), which will serve as the primary guide for the Federal Reserve.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4463, 4350, 4304
• 抵抗レベル: 4496, 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold is trading within the 4463-4493 range. Intraday bias currently favors sellers, so a momentum breakdown of 4463 may trigger a strong sell‑off toward 4403. Such a scenario would likely require a geopolitical catalyst. A bullish scenario is unlikely today, as the price must consolidate above 4493 to consider long positions.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4463
• Res: 4493
• Note: Short positions should be considered only after a confirmed breakdown below 4463. There are no optimal entry points for long positions at the moment.