主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.06.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1625
• 前回終了: 1.1597
• 前日に%変動: -0.24%

The euro came under pressure yesterday due to the strengthening of the dollar. The US dollar Index reached its highest level in the past two months. The American currency received strong support from robust domestic macroeconomic statistics, which forced traders to radically revise their expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The main driver of growth was the fresh May ADP report, according to which 122 thousand new jobs were created in the US private sector – not only exceeding analysts’ consensus expectations but also marking the strongest monthly increase since January 2025, confirming that the US labor market continues to gain momentum despite high interest rates. European investors are pricing in almost a 100% probability of a rate hike by the European Central Bank at next week’s meeting, with the potential for another 25‑basis‑point increase in September.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1586, 1.1547
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1610, 1.1630, 1.1651, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

Today, the focus is on the 1.1610 level, as it will be the decisive factor for intraday movement. As long as the price remains below this level, there is a high probability of a decline toward 1.1586. On the other hand, an impulsive consolidation above 1.1610 will very likely trigger growth toward at least 1.1630.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1586
• Res: 1.1610
• Note: Sell trades are appropriate from the 1.1610 level, but with confirmation. A repeated consolidation above 1.1610 will trigger a new wave of euro growth toward 1.1630 and higher.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3464
• 前回終了: 1.3416
• 前日に%変動: -0.36%

The UK macroeconomic agenda confirmed a significant cooling of business activity in a key sector of the economy. The final S&P Global UK Services PMI for May was revised upward to 49.3 points compared to the preliminary estimate of 47.9. Amid falling demand and prolonged pressure from high costs, British companies shifted to strict optimization, recording the fastest pace of job cuts since February of this year. Such a weak Services PMI release clearly confirms the validity of market concerns: the Bank of England will have to raise interest rates in September amid the obvious slide of the national economy into stagflationary recession.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3412, 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3437, 1.3454, 1.3483, 1.3507, 1.3550, 1.3596

The British pound fell below the 1.3437 level and is now trading in the 1.3412-1.3437 range. The intraday bias favors sellers, so traders should primarily focus on selling from 1.3437 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. If the price impulsively consolidates above 1.3437, this will open the way toward 1.3454 and higher.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3412
• Res: 1.3437
• Note: Sell trades are best considered from 1.3437 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. An impulsive breakout of 1.3437 will trigger growth toward 1.3454 and higher.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 159.87
• 前回終了: 160.04
• 前日に%変動: +0.11%

All short‑term dynamics of the Japanese currency came under strong pressure due to renewed escalation in US-Iran relations, which triggered a powerful wave of global demand for the US dollar as the main safe‑haven asset. As a result, the yen completely erased all the recovery gains achieved thanks to last month’s large‑scale government interventions totaling 11.7 trillion yen, once again confirming the strength of fundamental market factors working against Japan’s national currency. The new wave of depreciation forced the country’s leadership to issue fresh verbal warnings: Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi officially confirmed the government’s full readiness to take strict practical measures in case of further excessive and speculative exchange‑rate fluctuations.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 159.67, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65, 158.28, 158.00, 157.33
• 抵抗レベル: 159.98, 160.09, 160.46

The Japanese yen reached a psychological level yesterday, after which the price sharply dropped to 159.45 within a short period, visually very similar to a minor currency intervention. Today, a similar decline occurred from the 159.98 level. Notably, the price quickly returned to the points from which the drop occurred, indicating a strong bullish trend. Under such market conditions, sell trades are considered from 159.98 and 160.09, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for buying, as MACD divergence indicates a likely correction.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 159.67
• Res: 159.98
• Note: Sell trades are appropriate from 159.98 or 160.09, but with confirmation. There are no optimal buying points at the moment.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4492
• 前回終了: 4443
• 前日に%変動: -1.10%

Gold fell below the psychological level of 4500 dollars per ounce, approaching the spring lows of last week. Pressure on the precious metal intensified due to expectations that major global regulators will be forced to keep interest rates at high restrictive levels for much longer, reducing the attractiveness of gold as a non‑yielding asset. The situation is worsened by strong US economic releases: fresh macroeconomic data from ADP and JOLTS confirmed an acceleration in hiring, giving the Federal Reserve a strong reason to remain flexible regarding further rate hikes.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4439, 4403, 4350, 4304
• 抵抗レベル: 4493, 4538, 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold fell to 4440 dollars per ounce, after which a new consolidation phase began in the 4439-4493 range. For selling, it is best to wait for a test of the 4493 resistance level. Buy trades are best considered from 4439, but only with confirmation. Overall, gold currently presents rather challenging conditions for opening optimal entry points.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4439
• Res: 4493
• Note: Sell trades are considered from 4493, but with confirmation. Buy trades are best considered from 4439, also with confirmation.