主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.07.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1422
• 前回終了: 1.1421
• 前日に%変動: -0.01%

On Tuesday, the EUR/USD rate slightly declined amid moderate strengthening of the US dollar, which put minor pressure on the euro. An additional negative factor was weak inflation data from Germany for June, which came in below expectations and increased doubts about the prospects for further ECB tightening. At the same time, the euro’s decline was partially offset by stronger macroeconomic statistics. Retail sales in Germany rose by 1.1% month‑on‑month in May, significantly exceeding expectations and showing the strongest increase in the past 11 months. The labor market also demonstrated resilience: the number of unemployed unexpectedly fell by 1,000 in June instead of the expected increase of 5,000. Against this backdrop, markets estimate the probability of a 25 bps ECB rate hike at the July 23 meeting at only 5%, reflecting expectations of a cautious approach by the regulator.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1383, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1430, 1.1478, 1.1523, 1.1559

The euro continues to trade against the dollar within the 1.1383-1.1430 range. On Monday, the price failed to consolidate above 1.1430, where sellers again showed sharp initiative, leading to a decline toward the EMA lines and effectively toward the mid‑balance area. Today, traders’ focus again shifts to the support level at 1.1383 or the EMA lines. If buyers show initiative here, intraday long positions toward 1.1430 may be considered. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1430 will open the way toward 1.1478.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1383
• Res: 1.1430
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1383 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for short trades.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3248
• 前回終了: 1.3260
• 前日に%変動: +0.09 %

On Tuesday, the British pound fluctuated around 1.32 USD, remaining close to a seven‑month low amid political uncertainty and expectations of changes in the UK’s financial leadership following Rachel Reeves. Pressure on the currency increased due to investor caution ahead of further political decisions related to forming the new cabinet. An additional factor of instability is linked to statements by Andy Burnham, one of the key contenders for the post of prime minister after Keir Starmer’s resignation. He reaffirmed his commitment to budget discipline and allowed for the transfer of some financial powers to local authorities, but did not disclose specific details or personnel appointments. Against this backdrop, the pound is heading toward a monthly decline of more than 1.5% against the dollar, also driven by the strengthening of the US currency.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3235, 1.3209, 1.3184, 1.3155, 1.3093
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3262, 1.3327, 1.3390

Yesterday, the British pound failed to break above 1.3262: sellers showed initiative, after which the rate declined toward 1.3235 near the EMA lines. If buyers show initiative here, intraday long positions may be considered with a target of retesting 1.3262 or higher. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.3262.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3235
• Res: 1.3262
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.3235 near the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 1.3262.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 161.94
• 前回終了: 162.51
• 前日に%変動: +0.35%

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen fell below 162.5 per dollar, updating a four‑decade low amid US economic resilience and expectations of further Fed rate hikes. Traders are actively discussing the likelihood of currency intervention by Tokyo, viewing the upcoming US holiday on Friday as the most suitable moment for action due to low market liquidity. Pressure on the yen persists due to ongoing carry‑trade operations and investor skepticism regarding the Bank of Japan’s ability to accelerate monetary‑policy normalization. An additional negative factor remains Japan’s high dependence on Middle Eastern oil imports, which, under geopolitical instability, makes the country’s economy extremely vulnerable and reduces demand for the national currency.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 162.52, 162.05, 161.90, 161.56, 161.34
• 抵抗レベル: 163.00

The Japanese yen is already trading above 162.50, with no major seller in sight. This increases the likelihood of further growth toward 163.00. Under such market conditions, the bias remains bullish, and traders are best advised to focus on intraday long trades. For long positions, consider levels 162.52 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short trades, focus on 163.00, but only if sellers show reaction. Currency intervention by Japanese authorities is also not ruled out.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 162.52
• Res: 163.00
• Note: Long trades are considered from 162.52 or the EMA lines, but with confirmation. Currency intervention by Japanese authorities is also not ruled out.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4018
• 前回終了: 4007
• 前日に%変動: -0.27%

On Tuesday, gold traded at around 4030 USD per ounce, remaining near its lowest levels in almost eight months. Pressure on the market came from the Fed’s hawkish policy and the end of the dollar‑weakening trend. By the end of the second quarter, gold is expected to decline by roughly 11%, which may become one of the weakest quarterly results in recent decades. Additional pressure was formed by strong US macroeconomic indicators, which strengthened expectations of continued Fed tightening. JOLTS data showed the highest number of job openings in two years, and labor‑market predictions suggest another notable increase in nonfarm employment in June. Meanwhile, core inflation remains above the 2% target.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 3963, 3884
• 抵抗レベル: 4050, 4087, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold attempted to consolidate above 4050, but sellers showed initiative. The price bounced and is now retesting the support level at 3963. If buyers do not react here, the price may fall to 3921. But if buyers respond again at 3963, intraday long trades may be considered with targets toward the EMA lines or 4050.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 3963
• Res: 4050
• Note: Intraday long trades from 3963 are appropriate, but only with confirmation. A breakout of 3963 on impulse will open the way toward 3921.