主要通貨ペアの分析概要： 2026.07.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.1422
• 前回終了: 1.1377
• 前日に%変動: -0.39%

The EUR/USD pair ended Wednesday lower, coming under double pressure: strengthening of the US dollar and the release of dovish data from the Eurozone. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slowdown to 2.8% year‑on‑year versus the expected 3.0%, which, combined with a decline in core inflation to 2.4%, sharply reduced market expectations for aggressive ECB tightening. The negative trend for the euro was reinforced by Christine Lagarde’s speech at the forum in Sintra. The ECB President noted that risks to economic growth and inflation have become more balanced, which the market interpreted as a signal of a softer stance from the regulator. Against such rhetoric, the probability of a rate hike at the July ECB meeting fell to a minimal 4%, while a slight improvement in the manufacturing PMI (to 51.4) failed to reverse prevailing bearish sentiment.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.1371, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279
• 抵抗レベル: 1.1409, 1.1430, 1.1478, 1.1523, 1.1559

The euro continues forming a flat accumulation within the 1.1371-1.1409 range. The boundaries of the flat have slightly narrowed due to price reaction. Today, traders’ focus is directed toward support levels 1.1359 or 1.1371. If buyers show initiative here, intraday long positions toward 1.1409 or higher may be considered. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1359 will open the way toward 1.1330 and lower.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1371
• Res: 1.1409
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1359 or 1.1371. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1359 will open the way toward 1.1330 and lower.

The GBP/USD currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 1.3259
• 前回終了: 1.3274
• 前日に%変動: +0.11 %

The British pound is trading near 1.32 USD, holding above a seven‑month low after a significant decline in June caused by US dollar strength, political instability, and dovish rhetoric from the Bank of England. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey confirmed a dovish stance, noting a slowdown in economic growth that justifies keeping the rate at 3.75%. Despite the absence of plans to cut rates due to inflation risks, Bailey positively assessed the impact of lower energy prices. Meanwhile, hawkish expectations regarding the Fed under Kevin Warsh continue to pressure GBP/USD, while the UK’s domestic political agenda is gradually stabilizing thanks to Andy Burnham’s promises to maintain budget discipline.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 1.3262, 1.3235, 1.3209, 1.3184, 1.3155, 1.3093
• 抵抗レベル: 1.3312, 1.3390

The British pound looks more confident than the euro. The pound consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3262 and is now aiming to test liquidity above 1.3312. Intraday pressure remains on the buyers’ side. Under such market conditions, long trades are appropriate from 1.3262 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short trades, evaluate price reaction in the zone above 1.3312.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3262
• Res: 1.3312
• Note: Long trades are appropriate from 1.3262 or from the EMA lines, but with confirmation. For short trades, evaluate price reaction in the zone above 1.3312.

The USD/JPY currency pair

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 162.52
• 前回終了: 162.58
• 前日に%変動: +0.04%

The Japanese yen continues consolidating near a 40‑year low around 162.5 per dollar, provoking heightened market vigilance regarding potential interventions from Tokyo. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed the authorities’ readiness for “adequate measures,” but the market remains skeptical: verbal interventions have not yet restrained the pressure caused by persistent carry‑trade strategies and the still‑significant interest‑rate spread between Japan and the US Investors expect that the upcoming US holiday on July 4, accompanied by reduced market liquidity, may become a “window of opportunity” for effective intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 162.05, 161.90, 161.56, 161.34
• 抵抗レベル: 162.39, 162.59, 163.00

The Japanese yen has partially strengthened and bounced from its 40‑year low against the dollar. Technically, the price impulsively broke the support level of 162.39, which potentially opens the path toward 162.05. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions should be considered from 162.02, but with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. For short trades, the 162.39-162.59 zone may be considered, but also with confirmation.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 162.05
• Res: 162.39
• Note: For long trades, consider the 162.02 level, but with confirmation. For short trades, the 162.39-162.59 zone may be considered, but also with confirmation.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

通貨ペアの技術指標:

• 前回開設: 4011
• 前回終了: 4031
• 前日に%変動: +0.49%

On Wednesday, the price rose to 4090 USD per ounce amid investors’ flight into safe‑haven assets. The main trigger for the rally was the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which erased hopes for a quick stabilization of the Middle East situation and increased demand for the precious metal. The market received an additional impulse after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the forum in Sintra. Despite acknowledging a slowdown in inflation risks, Warsh reaffirmed the regulator’s hawkish commitment to the 2% target and confirmed the abandonment of forward guidance.

取引のお薦め

• サポートレベル: 4030, 3972, 3884
• 抵抗レベル: 4093, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold strengthened sharply yesterday, confidently consolidating above the EMA lines. But the resistance zone above 4093 remains an impenetrable wall for the “yellow metal.” Meanwhile, buyers have formed a support level around 4030. The intraday bias remains bullish. Under such market conditions, long trades are appropriate from the EMA lines or from 4030, but with confirmation. Profit targets are 4093 and potentially 4138.

別のシナリオ:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4030
• Res: 4093
• Note: Intraday long trades are appropriate from 4030 or from the EMA lines, but only with confirmation. Profit targets are 4093 and potentially 4138.