@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.08.07

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1572
• 폐장 전: 1.1658
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.74 %

The EUR/USD pair rose to a weekly high on Wednesday. The euro rose on Wednesday on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Holtzman, who said he sees no reason for the ECB to cut interest rates again. The euro’s rise accelerated on Wednesday after the dollar fell on “dovish” comments from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed chief Lisa Cook, who said they supported lower interest rates. On the bearish side for the euro was economic news from the Eurozone, which showed that June factory orders in Germany unexpectedly showed the biggest decline in the last 5 months. In addition, the euro is being hampered by fears that President Trump’s tariff policy will limit economic growth in the Eurozone.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 저항 레벨: 1.1678, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend has changed to an upward trend. The price has confidently consolidated above the priority level change and is trading above the EMA lines. Currently, the price is aiming to test the resistance level at 1.1710. Considering the MACD divergence, fixation of previously opened purchases is possible here. There is no optimal entry point for buying now, as the price has deviated strongly from the middle lines.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1528 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3286
• 폐장 전: 1.3357
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.46 %

The Bank of England will hold its next monetary policy meeting today. Economists expect the Bank of England to cut the interest rate by 0.25% from 4.25% to 4.00%, driven by persistent labor market weakness and broader economic uncertainty, despite inflation at around 3.6%. The unemployment rate has risen to 4.7%, the number of jobs has fallen in recent months, and private sector wage growth has slowed from approximately 6% to approximately 5%. The main focus of economists will be on the vote as there could be internal disagreements in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) vote allocation. The most likely vote is 7–2 in favor of a 25bp rate cut. The Bank of England’s outlook is likely to emphasize continued “gradual and cautious” easing, with no strong signal of an acceleration in the pace of cuts. Hawkish signals from the MPC may stabilize the pound for a while. However, the main outlook for the British currency from the BoE meeting remains moderately bearish.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 저항 레벨: 1.3372, 1.3402, 1.3452, 1.3470

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bearish, but close to changing. The British pound has consolidated above the resistance level of 1.3313 and now seeks to test the level of priority change at 1.3372. Sell trades can be considered here, provided the sellers take the initiative. For buying, it is best to wait for a pullback to 1.3313, but also with confirmation.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3470 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 147.57
• 폐장 전: 147.37
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.14 %

The Japanese yen held near 147.5 per dollar on Thursday, trading sideways this week as investors assessed the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy stance. Last week, the BoJ left interest rates unchanged but raised its inflation expectations, warning of growing downside risks from global trade tensions. Minutes of the June meeting showed that officials remain open to further policy tightening, especially if external risks abate. Separately, a Treasury Department official emphasized the need for policy flexibility, especially in bond-buying operations, to maintain market stability. As for the data, real wages in Japan declined for the sixth consecutive month in June, while inflation continues to outpace income growth, complicating the prospects for additional policy tightening.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 147.36, 146.63, 146.34
• 저항 레벨: 147.89, 148.54, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. Inside the day, the bias is also behind the sellers. Currently, the price is aiming to test the support level at 147.05, where it is important to evaluate the price action. A breakdown and consolidation below will open the price to 146.34. If buyers react at 147.05, inside we can look to buy up to the EMA lines, but with a short stop, as these will be counter-trend trades.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks through the support level of 150.91 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 3381
• 폐장 전: 3368
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.38 %

The gold price fell to $3370 per ounce on Wednesday, but remained near a two-week high as rising expectations of looser monetary policy continue to support the appeal of the interest-free metal. Data from the US showed that the ISM Services Business Activity Index fell in July, missing expectations and signaling sluggish growth, declining employment, and increased price pressures. Additional data released last week also pointed to weakness in the labor market and consumer spending. These signs of economic weakness in the world’s largest economy have heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will ease policy at its September meeting, with markets now estimating a 90% chance of a rate cut.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 3351, 3333, 3311, 3281
• 저항 레벨: 3385, 3402, 3433

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Currently, the price is clamped in a triangle. Such a liquidity contraction usually leads to an impulsive movement. A price consolidation above the upper boundary of the triangle and above the resistance line 3385 will open the way to 3402. A price consolidation below the EMA lines and below the triangle line will probably trigger a corrective fall to 3351.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.