@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.08.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1712
• 폐장 전: 1.1660
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.45 %

On Monday, the Dollar Index rose above 98.1 thanks to geopolitical events and expectations ahead of the Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, which will take place later this week. At the White House, President Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, expressing optimism about ending the war and promising US participation in maintaining peace. In terms of monetary policy, markets estimate the probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut in September at 84%, while stronger-than-expected producer inflation and retail sales figures have tempered expectations of a more significant 50-basis-point rate change. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will make further recommendations in Jackson Hole.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1629, 1.1589, 1.1528, 1.1485, 1.1375, 1.1313
• 저항 레벨: 1.1675, 1.1710, 1.1770

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. The euro has consolidated below 1.1670, canceling the locked balance of buyers. Most likely, the price will rush to test liquidity below 1.1629. Intraday, you can consider selling trades up to this level. It is worth considering buying from 1.1629, but only with confirmation in the form of a reaction from buyers.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1590 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3529
• 폐장 전: 1.3502
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.20 %

In the UK, yields on long-term inflation-linked bonds have exceeded the highs seen during the collapse of the gilts market three years ago. Economists predict that the UK will soon have to raise taxes to stay on the right side of the fiscal rules set by the government. The tax increase will increase the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Bank of England, which is negative for the British currency.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3462, 1.3396, 1.3313, 1.3214, 1.3137
• 저항 레벨: 1.3522, 1.3586

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bullish. The British pound has consolidated below 1.3522, indicating a bearish bias within the day. In this scenario, you can consider selling from 1.3522 to the support level of 1.3462. It is worth returning to buying either after testing 1.3462 with a bullish reaction or after the price consolidates above 1.3522.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks through the support level of 1.3396 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 147.19
• 폐장 전: 147.86
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.45 %

The Japanese yen remained close to 148 per dollar on Tuesday after falling about 0.5% in the previous session. Pressure came from the strengthening of the dollar amid growing optimism about progress in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. On Monday, US President Donald Trump met with European leaders to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and secured a direct meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could be followed by a trilateral summit involving himself. The yen also faced headwinds after Japanese officials downplayed comments by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the Bank of Japan was “behind schedule” in its policy, which was seen as pressure to raise rates. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda continues to take a cautious stance, emphasizing that “core inflation” remains below the 2% target.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 146.74, 146.35
• 저항 레벨: 148.03, 148.52, 149.18, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bearish. The Japanese yen showed weakness yesterday and reached the resistance level of 148.03. The price is currently trading on the EMA lines, which complicates the search for optimal entry points. The price may continue to decline from both the current values and the priority change level of 148.52. Currently, there is little profit potential for buy deals.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 148.53 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 3338
• 폐장 전: 3333
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.15 %

Gold prices fell to $3330 per ounce on Monday as investors focused on US President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian and European leaders and the Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole. President Trump expressed optimism about ending the war in Ukraine during a White House meeting with President Zelensky, which was also attended by European and NATO leaders. This came after a long-awaited summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin last Friday, which did not result in any breakthrough on a ceasefire. Meanwhile, markets will be closely watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, as well as the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting, amid growing expectations of a September interest rate cut.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 3333, 3311, 3281
• 저항 레벨: 3358, 3374, 3402, 3433

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Buyers are trying to hold the 3333 support level, but selling pressure is increasing. If the price manages to consolidate below 3333, there could be a sharp sell-off to 3311, which opens up excellent intraday opportunities. Buyers need to take the initiative now. In this scenario, buying from 3333 can be considered.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks the support level of 3281 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.