@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.09.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1638
• 폐장 전: 1.1661
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.20 %

The euro consolidated above the $1.16 mark, fluctuating near its highest level in the last month, amid a weakening US dollar due to weaker labor market data. The JOLTS report showed that the number of job openings in the US fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July, the lowest level since September 2024 and below expectations of 7.4 million, which reinforced bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. In Europe, budget concerns are growing amid expectations of increased defense spending and infrastructure investment in Germany, while attention is also turning to the vote of confidence in the French prime minister on September 8.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1642, 1.1629, 1.1584, 1.1528
• 저항 레벨: 1.1680, 1.1717, 1.1737

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bullish. Yesterday, buyers managed to push the price away from the priority change level. The price rose to 1.1680, where sellers became active. Currently, the price is heading towards 1.1642, where it is important to assess price action. Buyer initiative from this level will open up opportunities for buy deals. A breakdown and consolidation of the price below 1.1642 could trigger a sharp sell-off.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks the support level of 1.1629 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3388
• 폐장 전: 1.3443
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.41 %

The British pound rose above $1.34 again, taking advantage of the weakening US dollar after disappointing labor market data reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Domestically, the pound’s outlook remains uncertain due to financial uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves under pressure to announce tax increases or spending cuts to meet fiscal targets. Meanwhile, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey told lawmakers that there is “significantly more uncertainty” about when UK rates might be cut.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3398, 1.3312, 1.3281
• 저항 레벨: 1.3345, 1.3403, 1.3445, 1.3492, 1.3533

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is bearish. Yesterday, the price tested liquidity below 1.3352, after which there was a sharp rise. Currently, after testing the resistance level of 1.3445 (breaker), the price is heading towards 1.3398, where it is important to assess the price action. The reaction of buyers will provide an opportunity for intraday buy trades. A breadown and consolidation below 1.3398 is likely to trigger a sharp sell-off.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3533 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 148.29
• 폐장 전: 148.08
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.14 %

On Thursday, the Japanese yen strengthened above 148 per dollar, recovering from the previous session’s losses as the dollar retreated after weak US employment data reinforced expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. On the domestic front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated on Wednesday that the bank’s policy on raising rates would remain unchanged if growth and inflation developed in line with expectations. Investors are now awaiting Friday’s wage data for further policy guidance.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 147.95, 147.34, 147.09
• 저항 레벨: 148.50, 148.81, 149.55, 150.34

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. Yesterday, the price corrected to the support level of 147.95, after which liquidity was captured below the level, and buyers reacted. Intraday today, you can consider buy trades with a target of 148.50. It is important for buyers to keep the price above 147.95. Otherwise, the yen may strengthen sharply to 147.34.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.09 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 3537
• 폐장 전: 3563
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.73 %

On Thursday, the price of gold fell to around $3,540 per ounce, interrupting its longest streak of growth since March, but remaining at a record high due to increased demand for safe assets and expectations of a softening of US monetary policy. On Wednesday, the Trump administration appealed a court ruling that overturned most of its global tariffs, which could lead to a potential showdown in the Supreme Court. This exacerbated overall uncertainty, including concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and debt problems, which continued to support the price of gold.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 3500, 3469, 3438, 3402, 3383, 3374
• 저항 레벨: 3575, 3600

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold has hit a ceiling around 3575. Previously opened purchases have begun to be fixed, but it is too early to speak about a reversal. The price has started a correction. For buy deals, it is best to consider support levels of 3500 and 3469, but with confirmation. Intraday, you can consider selling trades up to these levels, but with reduced volume, as these will be countertrend positions.

대체 시나리오:

if the price breaks the support level of 3374 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.