@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.11.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1615
• 폐장 전: 1.1591
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.20 %

The euro held around $1.16 amid expectations of ECB speeches and key US economic data delayed by the government shutdown, including the September employment report, which may provide guidance for Fed policy. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence that Eurozone inflation will gradually approach the target level but noted risks related to tariffs, sovereign debt, and sharp shifts in market sentiment. Meanwhile, the European Commission raised its Eurozone growth expectations for 2025 to 1.3% from 0.9%.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1580, 1.1568, 1.1540
• 저항 레벨: 1.1613, 1.1653, 1.1665

Yesterday, the price consolidated below 1.1613 and reached support at 1.1580. A flat accumulation is forming, complicating entry points, especially since the price is in the middle of the range. Buying opportunities can be considered from 1.1580, but with confirmation. For selling, assess reaction at resistance 1.1613.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1580
• Res: 1.1613
• Note: It may be better to trade by range rules – i.e., buy from the lower boundary, sell from the upper.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3151
• 폐장 전: 1.3155
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.03 %

GBP/USD started the week around $1.3165, under pressure after the UK government’s sharp policy reversal and bond market shock caused by canceling the planned income tax hike. This unexpected move heightened concerns about a growing budget deficit, triggered a sharp rise in bond yields, and undermined confidence in the budget presented on November 26. Weak GDP growth of 0.1% added pressure on the pound and confirmed analysts’ negative sentiment about the UK economy.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3138, 1.3085, 1.3072
• 저항 레벨: 1.3185, 1.3216, 1.3247, 1.3291, 1.3328, 1.3365

No changes here. A flat accumulation with narrowing liquidity is forming. Intraday bias favors sellers, making a downward impulse more likely. While the price remains in the middle of the accumulation, it is better to refrain from trading. Consolidation below 1.3138 will likely trigger selling down to 1.3085.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3138
• Res: 1.3185
• Note: Consolidation below 1.3138 will trigger a sharp sell-off.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 154.52
• 폐장 전: 155.21
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.44 %

The Japanese yen traded around 155.2 per dollar, near a ten-month low, amid caution ahead of a key meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Investors closely monitor the talks, hoping for signals on the regulator’s next steps and the government’s approach to currency stabilization, especially amid expectations that Takaichi will push for a more cautious rate-hike cycle while preparing an expanded fiscal package. Japan’s finance minister voiced concern over sharp one-sided yen moves, stressing risks of broader economic effects from currency weakness.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 155.02, 154.41, 153.66, 153.15, 151.51, 150.87, 150.15
• 저항 레벨: 156.54

The medium-term trend is bullish. Yesterday, the price consolidated above 155.02, and on the pullback, buyers actively defended this level. Intraday bias favors buyers. Buying opportunities are best considered from 155.02, but with confirmation. The path to 156.54 is now open. A move below 155.02 may trigger selling down to 154.41.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 155.02
• Res: 156.54
• Note: It may be better to buy from 155.02 with a target of 156.50. Holding below 155.02 will trigger a sell-off to 154.41.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4087
• 폐장 전: 4041
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -1.13%

On Tuesday, gold prices fell to around $4,020 per ounce, marking the fourth consecutive decline amid weakening expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Monday that risks of slowing employment are now higher than risks of further inflation, but emphasized the need for a “cautious” approach to further rate cuts. The market currently prices in about a 43% chance of a 25 bps cut in December – noticeably lower than roughly 60% at the start of the month.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4007, 3966
• 저항 레벨: 4052, 4102, 4148, 4210, 4246, 4379

Gold remains under selling pressure. The price fell to support at 4007, where buyers showed initiative. But sellers remain active from 4052. The price is retesting support at 4007, making price action crucial. If buyers react, intraday buying toward 4052 can be considered. MACD divergence also provides confirmation for buyers. A move below 4007 will trigger selling down to 3966.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 4007
• Res: 4052
• Note: Buyers should keep the price above 4000.