@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.11.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1512
• 폐장 전: 1.1520
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.07%

EUR/USD rose on Monday amid US dollar weakness. The euro was supported by improved prospects for ending the war in Ukraine after NATO Secretary General Rutte expressed confidence in a peace agreement, noting that Russia is “at a disadvantage.” A limiting factor for euro growth was the unexpected decline in Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index: in November, the indicator fell by 0.4 points to 88.1, below expectations of 88.5. Swaps estimate the probability of an ECB rate cut of 25 bps at the December 18 meeting at just 2%.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1503
• 저항 레벨: 1.1547, 1.1563

Compared with yesterday, the situation has barely changed. The euro continues to form a flat accumulation between 1.1503-1.1547. Price is now heading toward a test of the lower boundary at 1.1503, where price action will be key. If buyers are active, the price may rise again to 1.1547. A breakout of 1.1503 on impulse would trigger continuation of the downtrend.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1503
• Res: 1.1547
• Note: look for buys from 1.1503, but with confirmation. A breakout of 1.1503 would resume the downtrend.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3093
• 폐장 전: 1.3103
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.08 %

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves must find tens of billions of pounds to meet her own fiscal rules, as the OBR is expected to downgrade growth and productivity prognoses. This could create a £20–30 billion hole in public finances. Recent data highlight the scale of the problem: government borrowing has risen to its highest level outside the pandemic period, business activity has nearly stalled, and retail sales have declined. Inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England may resume rate cuts. Markets price in about an 80% chance of a 25 bps cut in December, continuing to pressure gilt yields ahead of the budget release.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3080, 1.3038
• 저항 레벨: 1.3119, 1.3136, 1.3185

Technically, the picture is unchanged. Price continues to form a wide volatile balance between 1.3038-1.3119. Within this balance, another accumulation is forming between 1.3080-1.3119. Most likely, until the November 26 budget release, price will remain in these ranges. Intraday, short trades can be considered from 1.3119 or 1.3136, but with confirmation. Profit target: 1.3080. No optimal entry points for buying at present.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3080
• Res: 1.3119
• Note: look for shorts from 1.3119 or 1.3136, but with confirmation.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 156.32
• 폐장 전: 156.87
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.35 %

On Tuesday, the yen strengthened to 156.6 per dollar, recovering losses from the previous session amid speculation of possible currency intervention by authorities. On Sunday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s advisor Takuji Aida said Tokyo is ready to actively enter the market to offset the negative economic effects of a weak yen. His stance was previously supported by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, reinforcing expectations of potential measures. Pressure on the yen has persisted since October, after Takaichi’s election, when she introduced a large fiscal stimulus package and pledged support for accommodative monetary policy.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 156.26, 155.73, 155.00
• 저항 레벨: 157.11, 157.87

The yen reached resistance at 157.11, where sellers showed moderate initiative. Price is now forming a flat accumulation between 156.26-157.11. For buying, consider support at 156.26, but with confirmation. No optimal entry points for selling at present.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 156.26
• Res: 157.11
• Note: for buy deals, assess reaction at support 156.26.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4067
• 폐장 전: 4133
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +1.62%

Gold prices rose to around $4,140 per ounce, recovering part of the recent weekly decline. Reassessment of monetary expectations led to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and providing additional support. Investors await US retail sales and producer price data on Tuesday, as well as weekly jobless claims on Wednesday – indicators that may clarify Fed policy prospects.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4104, 4031, 4007, 3966
• 저항 레벨: 4148, 4210, 4246, 4379

Yesterday, the price impulsively broke resistance at 4104, then reached the next level at 4148. Price action here is crucial. A breakout of 4148 on impulse will open the path to 4210, resuming the rally. If sellers are active at 4148, expect an intraday decline to 4104, which can also be considered for buying, but with confirmation.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4104
• Res: 4148
• Note: breakout of 4148 will open the way to 4210. Buying opportunities are also valid from support at 4104.