@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.12.15

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1735
• 폐장 전: 1.1739
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.03%

The US Dollar Index rose slightly on Friday following hawkish comments from Fed officials, which pushed Treasury yields higher and supported demand for defensive assets amid stock market weakness. Officials from the Chicago, Kansas City, and Cleveland Feds emphasized the need to maintain a moderately restrictive policy and await further data, given the economy’s resilience and elevated inflation. Against this backdrop, the euro managed only a marginal gain, recovering earlier losses due to divergence in monetary policy expectations. The market anticipates further Fed rate cuts in 2026 while the ECB’s easing cycle is considered complete, though dollar strength capped the upside. Swaps currently price the probability of an ECB rate cut at the December 18 meeting at 0%.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1725, 1.1680, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• 저항 레벨: 1.1758, 1.1786

As expected, the euro began to form a sideways consolidation phase with boundaries at 1.1724-1.1783. The intraday bias remains with the buyers. Buy trades can be considered from 1.1725, but with confirmation. Should the price hold below 1.1725, a correction towards 1.1680 may occur.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1725
• Res: 1.1758
• Note: Considering buy deals from the 1.1725 support, but with confirmation. A price move below 1.1725 will trigger a correction to 1.1680.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3384
• 폐장 전: 1.3370
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.10 %

The British pound slightly weakened below $1.34 after data showed an unexpected contraction of UK GDP by 0.1% in October – the fourth consecutive month without growth, contrary to expectations of a modest increase. Nevertheless, the Sterling remains near two-month highs. The focus this week is on the Bank of England meeting. The market prices have an almost 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%, which would be the fourth cut this year and would lower borrowing costs to a minimum in 2022.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3354, 1.3292, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• 저항 레벨: 1.3388, 1.3454

The British pound corrected to the support level of 1.3354. This level can be considered for buys to continue the uptrend, with targets at 1.3388 and 1.3454. It is crucial for buyers not to allow the price to hold below 1.3354. Otherwise, a sell-off towards 1.3292 may occur.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3354
• Res: 1.3388
• Note: The 1.3354 support level can be considered for buys, but with confirmation. A price move below 1.3354 will trigger a correction to 1.3292.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 155.57
• 폐장 전: 155.80
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.14 %

On Monday, the Japanese yen strengthened to 155 per dollar, hitting a weekly high amid anticipation of the Bank of Japan meeting, where the market is pricing in a 25 basis point hike in the key rate to 0.75%. Investor focus will be on comments from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, which should clarify the future policy trajectory; analysts even suggest a potential rate hike to 1% by July. Tightening expectations are supported by resilient domestic data: inflation continues to hold above historical levels, and the Tankan Index of large manufacturers’ business sentiment rose to 15 in Q4, reaching a four-year high. The yen also receives support from signals that the government will not hinder a rate hike, fearing that prolonged policy delay weakens the currency and amplifies imported inflation.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 154.95, 154.41, 154.17
• 저항 레벨: 155.50, 155.80, 156.08, 156.57, 157.11

The Japanese currency strengthened again on Friday to 154.94, where buyers showed weak activity. It is now important to assess the price reaction to the 154.94 support level. A breakthrough and close below this level will open the way for the price towards 154.41 and lower. If buyers do show initiative from 154.94, intraday buy trades can be sought, but with short targets, as the medium-term bias is currently with the sellers.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 154.94
• Res: 155.50
• Note: Considering sell trades after the price holds below 154.94.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4276
• 폐장 전: 4299
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.54%

On Monday, gold prices rose to around $4340 per ounce, nearing an all-time high, amid anticipation of key US macroeconomic releases that could clarify the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate path. Investors’ main focus this week will be on the labor market report scheduled for Tuesday, as well as inflation data due on Thursday.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4263, 4246, 4194, 4163, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• 저항 레벨: 4379

On Friday, gold sharply corrected to the support level of 4263, but buyers quickly bought the price back up. The price still aims for the resistance level of 4379. For buy trades, it is best to consider the EMA lines, as the price may not make significant corrections during a strong rally. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4263
• Res: 4379
• Note: Looking for buy deals from the EMA lines. The profit target is 4379. There are no optimal entry points for selling.