@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2025.12.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1732
• 폐장 전: 1.1753
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.18%

The EUR/USD rate reached a 2.5-month high on Monday, amid overall dollar weakness and improving macroeconomic signals from the Eurozone. Support for the euro came from industrial production data, which increased by 0.8% month-over-month in October – the fastest pace in five months and fully in line with market expectations. An additional growth factor was the divergence in monetary policy: markets are pricing in continued Fed rate cuts in 2026, while the ECB appears to have completed its easing cycle, with swaps estimating zero probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1725, 1.1680, 1.1656, 1.1590, 1.1555, 1.1503
• 저항 레벨: 1.1758, 1.1786

The euro continues to form a sideways consolidation with boundaries at 1.1724-1.1758. The intraday bias remains with the buyers. The price is likely to stay range-bound until the Non-Farm Payrolls report is published. Buy trades can be considered from 1.1725, but with confirmation. A break of the upper boundary of the consolidation will open the path for the price to 1.1786. If the price holds below 1.1725, a correction towards 1.1680 may occur, opening up selling opportunities.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1725
• Res: 1.1758
• Note: Сonsidering buys from the 1.1725 support, but with confirmation. The price holding above 1.1758 will open the path to 1.1786.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3397
• 폐장 전: 1.3376
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.17 %

Today, the UK releases its labor market report, which will be a key indicator for the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.1%, and employment growth is expected at 22.3K, lower than the previous 29K. Meanwhile, average earnings growth is projected to decline from 4.8% to 4.4% y/y. If the data confirms labor market weakness, it will strengthen the BoE’s dovish stance and increase the likelihood of a rate cut, putting pressure on the pound. Conversely, any surprises in the form of a more resilient labor market could support the currency.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3354, 1.3292, 1.3268, 1.3156, 1.3111, 1.3080
• 저항 레벨: 1.3395, 1.3454

The British pound is also starting to form a sideways consolidation with boundaries at 1.3354-1.3395. The price is likely to stay range-bound until the Non-Farm Payrolls report is published. It is crucial for buyers not to let the price hold below 1.3354. Otherwise, a sell-off towards 1.3292 may occur. But as long as the breakdown has not happened, intraday buy trades can be sought from 1.3354, but with confirmation.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3354
• Res: 1.3395
• Note: The 1.3354 support level can be considered for buys, but with confirmation. A price move below 1.3354 will trigger a correction to 1.3292.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 155.77
• 폐장 전: 155.20
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.37 %

The Japanese yen continues to strengthen amid expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike this week. The probability of such a scenario is estimated at approximately 80%. The BoJ has long kept rates at ultra-low levels and avoided normalization. A rate hike at this meeting would be another step towards normalization after years of loose policy, potentially changing the structure of the Japanese bond market and other assets.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 154.92, 154.41, 154.17
• 저항 레벨: 155.50, 155.80, 156.08, 156.57, 157.11

The Japanese currency is trading near the 154.92 support level. It cannot be said that this level has been broken, as such levels are typically broken impulsively, which is not currently observed. An impulsive break and hold below this level will open the path for the price to 154.41 and lower. However, given the MACD divergence, if buyers do show initiative from 154.94, intraday buy trades can be sought, but with short targets.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 154.92
• Res: 155.50
• Note: Considering buy trades from 154.92, but with confirmation and short targets. The price holding below this level will open the path to 154.41.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4299
• 폐장 전: 4304
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.11%

Gold prices fell below $4290 per ounce on Tuesday amid profit-taking after hitting a nearly two-month high and in anticipation of key US data. Investor focus is on the Non-Farm Payrolls report, as well as the upcoming releases of retail sales, business activity, and inflation data for November, which could adjust expectations for Fed policy. Markets are pricing in about a 75% probability of rates remaining unchanged in January, despite expectations of two cuts over the next year. The quotes also faced additional pressure from reduced demand for defensive assets amid talks of a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4263, 4246, 4194, 4163, 4108, 4031, 4007, 3966
• 저항 레벨: 4379

Gold is forming a high-volatility consolidation with boundaries at 4263-4379. The price is currently moving towards a retest of the lower boundary at 4263, where buy trades can be considered, but only with confirmation, as a false break down to 4246 is possible. There are currently no optimal entry points for selling.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4263
• Res: 4379
• Note: Looking for buys from the 4263 or 4246 levels, but with confirmation. There are no optimal entry points for selling.