@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.03.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1639
• 폐장 전: 1.1611
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.24%

The euro has stabilized around $1.16, holding near a two-month low. The European currency remains a hostage to energy uncertainty: the EU economy, critically dependent on energy imports, reacts painfully to any supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar’s brief strengthening last week gave way to sideways movement after Donald Trump promised a “quick end” to the Iran conflict and measures to crash oil prices. Despite Washington’s verbal interventions, the fundamental outlook for Europe remains troubling. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane has already outlined the potential for crisis if de-escalation does not occur in the coming weeks. While the market previously priced in easing, investors are now convinced the ECB will be forced to hike rates by at least 25 basis points by year-end to contain secondary inflationary effects.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1607, 1.1468
• 저항 레벨: 1.1666, 1.1707, 1.1724, 1.1747

The price tested liquidity above 1.1654, followed by active selling. After a false breakout, the price declined to 1.1607, where buyers began to show interest. The pair is currently trading in a range between these levels. The demand zone below 1.1607 currently serves as the foundation for further growth. An impulse breakout of this zone will trigger a major sell-off. However, as long as the price remains above 1.1607, the intraday focus should be on looking for buying trades toward 1.1666.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1607
• Res: 1.1666
• Note: Look for intraday buys targeting 1.1666. An impulse breakout below 1.1607 will trigger a sell-off.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3443
• 폐장 전: 1.3417
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.19%

On Tuesday, the British pound staged a confident bounce, rising to $1.346. This reversal was driven by a sharp decline in safe-haven dollar demand following Donald Trump’s assurances that the active phase of the Iran conflict could end “very soon.” Lower oil prices and a retreat in European gas prices eased investor fears of an uncontrollable inflationary shock in the UK. This led to a drastic shift in Bank of England policy expectations. While traders were considering rate hikes yesterday to combat “war inflation,” the focus has shifted back to easing today. The probability of a rate cut (from the current 3.75%) by September 2026 has jumped to 50%.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3411, 1.3384, 1.3306, 1.3253
• 저항 레벨: 1.3463, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The pound continued its recovery yesterday as investors reassessed risks. Technically, the price consolidated above the EMA lines, shifting the structure. The intraday bias favors buyers, but the price is currently trading right at the 1.3463 resistance (the root of the bearish impulse). For buys, it is better to wait for an impulsive breakout above this level, which would open the path to 1.3501. If sellers show activity at 1.3463, expect an intraday decline back to 1.3411.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3411
• Res: 1.3463
• Note: Seek intraday sells from the 1.3463 resistance with confirmation. For buys, wait for an impulsive breakout of 1.3463.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 157.64
• 폐장 전: 158.09
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.28%

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen traded at the 158 level against the dollar, remaining under significant pressure due to conflicting signals from the conflict zone. While Donald Trump continues to speak of a swift end to the “excursion” in Iran, the Pentagon’s actions suggest otherwise. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed that Tuesday saw the most extensive strikes yet on Iranian military and industrial targets, while the US Navy reported the destruction of 16 mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. This uncertainty keeps investors in the dollar. Domestically, February PPI rose by only 2%, the lowest in nearly two years. This wholesale inflation slowdown gives the BoJ some breathing room, though it does not yet account for the March energy price explosion.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 157.97, 157.38, 156.80, 156.17, 155.70
• 저항 레벨: 158.39, 158.89

The yen has weakened again against the dollar. Today’s focus is on the 157.97 support level. A false breakout of this level could trigger a sharp rally; therefore, it is vital for buyers to hold this ground. If the price consolidates below 157.97 with impulse, it will open selling opportunities down to 157.32.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 157.97
• Res: 158.39
• Note: Look for intraday buys from 157.97 support, but only with confirmation. An impulse breakout below 157.97 opens the path to 157.32.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 5149
• 폐장 전: 5192
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.83%

On Tuesday, gold prices soared to $5,230 per ounce, reflecting extreme confusion among investors. The market is caught between diametrically opposed signals from Washington: while President Trump called the Iran mission “nearly finished,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth described Tuesday as the “most intense day of strikes,” targeting industrial facilities. This uncertainty, combined with falling Treasury yields and a softening dollar, returned capital to safe-haven assets. Swap markets have sharply revised rate-cut probabilities; the chances of a cut on March 18 have dropped to a minimum (~2.7%), with investors now pricing in only 40 basis points of total easing through the end of 2026. Gold is rising despite these “hawkish” expectations, as the inflation threat is currently perceived as more acute than the cost of borrowing.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 5157, 5049, 4996, 4963
• 저항 레벨: 5226, 5334, 5379, 5416

Gold strengthened yesterday up to the key 5226 resistance level, where sellers showed initiative. It is vital for sellers to defend the zone above 5226, as an impulse breakout above this level would open a path toward 5334 – a potential $100 move. Intraday, the price may correct toward 5157, so use caution with buys below 5226.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 5157
• Res: 5226
• Note: Priority is on sell trades from the supply zone above 5226, but only with mandatory confirmation. An impulse breakout above 5226 opens the way to 5334.