@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.03.16

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1514
• 폐장 전: 1.1416
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.86%

On Friday, the Dollar Index (DXY) made a powerful surge, settling at 100.36. This represents a 10-month high, confirming the greenback’s dominance as the primary “safe haven” amid full-scale war in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the Euro continued its prolonged slide, falling below the psychological 1.15 level – its lowest point since late July 2025. Investors are betting on the Dollar due to US energy independence, while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth confirmed plans for the most extensive series of airstrikes against Iran to date, effectively ruling out any near-term de-escalation. Traders have recalibrated expectations for the upcoming March 17-18 Fed meeting: the market is now certain the regulator will maintain rates in the 3.50-3.75% range to prevent a new inflationary spiral driven by high fuel costs.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1383
• 저항 레벨: 1.1451, 1.1490, 1.1566, 1.1666

The European currency remains under pressure due to dollar strength. The price has consolidated below 1.1451, potentially opening the path toward 1.1383. The intraday bias remains with the sellers, though a persistent MACD divergence suggests selling pressure is fading. Under these market conditions, intraday sell trades could be considered from the 1.1451 level, but only with confirmation. A break below 1.1451 would trigger a corrective move down to at least 1.1490.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1383
• Res: 1.1451
• Note: Consider intraday short positions from 1.1451 only with confirmation. An impulse breakout of 1.1451 will trigger a corrective move to at least 1.1490.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3341
• 폐장 전: 1.3221
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.91%

The GBP/USD pair slumped to the critical 1.33 mark, hitting its lowest level since last December. The British currency is caught in a crossfire: the USD dominates as a global haven following massive strikes on Iran, while domestic economic stagnation deprives the pound of fundamental support. UK January GDP data disappointed investors – the economy showed zero growth against an expected 0.2% rise, with manufacturing contracting and the services sector showing no signs of life. Despite weak data, 10-year Gilt yields soared above 4.7%, a high since October. The bond market is pricing in an “energy shock” reality: with oil above $100/barrel due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, traders see an 80% probability of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3214
• 저항 레벨: 1.3289, 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3463, 1.3501, 1.3582, 1.3606

The British pound, like the euro, is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The price has settled below the key level of 1.3289 and is heading toward a test of the 1.3214 support level. The intraday bias favors the bears, but the MACD divergence on higher timeframes suggests that selling pressure is waning. Under these market conditions, intraday buys can be considered from 1.3214, but with mandatory confirmation. The profit target is the liquidity zone above 1.3289, where selling pressure may resume.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3214
• Res: 1.3289
• Note: Intraday, looking for buy opportunities from the support level at 1.3214, but only if confirmed. For sell positions, evaluating price reaction at the 1.3289 level.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 159.40
• 폐장 전: 159.74
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.21%

On Monday, the Japanese yen attempted a recovery, strengthening above 159.5 per dollar. The market is eyeing the psychologically significant 160 level; a breach here could force the Japanese Ministry of Finance to move from verbal interventions to actual dollar sales. Tokyo’s position is complicated by diplomatic pressure from Washington. As the U.S. prepares to announce an international coalition to forcibly break the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump has explicitly called on Japan, along with China and France, to deploy warships to escort tankers. Given this geopolitical uncertainty, the BoJ is likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach at its March meeting, holding the rate at 0.75%. Governor Kazuo Ueda previously signaled that premature tightening during a supply shock (expensive oil) could damage domestic demand.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 159.00, 158.58, 158.24, 157.87, 157.32
• 저항 레벨: 159.74, 160.21

The Japanese yen is trading within a strong resistance zone. Given the prolonged divergence, there is a high probability of a pullback, which will lead to a corrective wave. We cannot rule out currency interventions, as the 160 level has previously served as a threshold where Japanese authorities have intervened on multiple occasions. Under these market conditions, we are looking for intraday sell trades, but only with confirmation in the form of seller momentum. Profit targets are 159.00 and 158.58. These levels can be considered for resuming buy trades, but only with confirmation.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 159.00
• Res: 159.74
• Note: Seek intraday short opportunities with targets at 159.00 and 158.58. These levels can then be considered for re-entering long positions, but only with confirmation.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 5075
• 폐장 전: 5020
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -1.10%

On Friday, gold showed a moderate rise to $5,110 per ounce, breaking a two-day correction following a sharp escalation in rhetoric between Washington and Tehran. Donald Trump’s statement that US strategic goals regarding Iran’s denuclearization outweigh energy price stability, combined with threats from Mojtaba Khamenei to open new fronts, brought the geopolitical risk premium back to the market. However, rally potential remains capped by the hawkish Fed. With markets completely pricing out a rate cut in March and doubting any easing by year-end, rising yields and a strong dollar create heavy headwinds.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 5008, 4963
• 저항 레벨: 5065, 5125, 5175, 5223, 5238, 5334

Gold briefly dipped below the $5000-per-ounce mark, reaching a liquidity pocket below 4963. The price is currently trading near the 5008 support level, and it is crucial for buyers to hold this level to resume the uptrend. Intraday, one can attempt to buy trades from 5008, but with minimal risk. The profit target is the resistance level at 5065. A repeat consolidation of the price below 5008 could lead to a retest of liquidity below 4963.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 5008
• Res: 5065
• Note: Consider long trades from 5008 with minimal risk. The profit target is resistance at 5065. A clean break back below 5008 could lead to a retest of the liquidity below 4963.