@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.03.19

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1539
• 폐장 전: 1.1468
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.61%

Today, the ECB faced an extremely difficult dilemma: a sharp surge in oil and gas prices due to the war in Iran has triggered a new wave of inflation, while the Eurozone economy is showing signs of stagnation. The regulator is expected to keep the interest rate at 2.15%, but Christine Lagarde’s rhetoric will become noticeably more hawkish. The probability of a summer rate cut – something markets were counting on at the beginning of the year – has almost dropped to zero, as the ECB is forced to consider the risks of “second‑round effects,” meaning the pass‑through of expensive energy resources into final goods prices and workers’ demands for wage increases.

For the FX market, the euro remains one of the most vulnerable G10 currencies due to the EU’s critical dependence on energy imports through unstable regions. In the EUR/USD pair, quotes continue to be pressured by higher US yields, and even a “hawkish” pause by the ECB is unlikely to reverse the downward trend.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1450, 1.1383
• 저항 레벨: 1.1491, 1.1556, 1.1613, 1.1666

Intraday bias has again shifted to sellers. The European currency has fallen to the support level of 1.1450. It is important to assess price action here: a break of 1.1450 will open the way toward 1.1383. If buyers manage to show initiative from 1.1450, intraday long positions toward 1.1491 may be considered.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.1450
• Res: 1.1491
• Note: Intraday, consider selling from 1.1491 or after a break of 1.1450. Long positions may be considered from 1.1450, but only with confirmation.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3356
• 폐장 전: 1.3269
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.65%

The Bank of England will hold a critically important meeting, where it is expected to keep the base rate at 3.75%. Earlier this year, markets confidently priced in spring policy easing, but the escalation of the conflict in Iran and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have erased those expectations. The surge in oil prices above $100 per barrel forced the regulator and the OBR to warn of the risk of inflation returning to 3% by year‑end, making any rate cuts in the coming months highly unlikely. The main intrigue of the meeting lies in how the MPC members will vote: if a significant number of officials support a rate hike to combat imported inflation, the pound may receive temporary support.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3252, 1.3214
• 저항 레벨: 1.3300, 1.3351, 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3463, 1.3501, 1.3582

The British pound fell sharply yesterday amid US dollar strength. The price dropped to the support level of 1.3252, where a liquidity pocket (demand zone) is located. A technical rebound to 1.3300 is likely here. Intraday, short‑term long positions may be considered, but with a near target of 1.3300. Selling may resume after testing 1.3300 or after an impulsive break of 1.3252.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 1.3252
• Res: 1.3300
• Note: Intraday, look for long setups from 1.3252, but with confirmation. Short setups are sought from 1.3300 or after a break of 1.3252.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 158.98
• 폐장 전: 159.74
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.48%

On Thursday, the Japanese yen weakened to 160 per dollar, remaining at its lowest level since July 2024, when authorities last intervened to support the currency. The Bank of Japan kept the short‑term interest rate at 0.75%, the highest level in the past 30 years. The decision was made by a majority vote (8 to 1), with Hajime Takata being the only dissenter, calling for an immediate tightening to 1%.

The regulator synchronized its actions with the US Federal Reserve, choosing a wait‑and‑see approach amid global uncertainty. The BoJ’s prognosis suggests a temporary decline in inflation below 2%, but officials emphasized that this lull will be short‑lived: the new surge in crude oil prices will inevitably put upward pressure on consumer prices in the coming months. The Bank of Japan confirmed its readiness to raise rates further if macroeconomic indicators align with expectations.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 159.28, 158.97, 158.58, 158.24, 157.87, 157.32
• 저항 레벨: 159.74

The Japanese yen has approached levels where the government previously conducted FX interventions. From a technical standpoint, the bias remains with buyers, so traders should use any pullback to look for long setups. The most optimal support levels are 159.28 and 158.97. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 158.28
• Res: 159.74
• Note: Consider long positions from 159.28 or 158.28, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for short positions.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 5005
• 폐장 전: 4818
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -3.88%

On Wednesday, gold futures fell to $4,880 per ounce, reaching a local low amid the “hawkish” outcome of the Fed meeting. Despite the sharp escalation in the Middle East, including airstrikes on Iran’s South Pars field and the death of intelligence minister Esmail Khatib, investors preferred the US dollar over the safe‑haven metal. The FOMC’s decision to keep the rate in the 3.5-3.75% range and its prediction of only one rate cut in 2026 triggered a rise in Treasury yields, significantly increasing the cost of holding non‑yielding gold.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4673
• 저항 레벨: 4815, 4869, 4900, 4963, 5044

The three‑day accumulation ended with distribution: the price dropped sharply and continues to fall impulsively. Intraday bias is strictly bearish, and there are no signs of a reversal. Under such market conditions, only short setups should be considered. The most optimal levels are the resistance zones at 4815, 4869, and 4900. If sellers show initiative at these levels, short positions can be confidently taken, though given the nature of the decline, the price may not provide such a pullback.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 4673
• Res: 4815
• Note: Look for short setups from 4815 or 4869. The downside target is the support level at 4673. There are currently no conditions for long positions.