@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.04.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1545
• 폐장 전: 1.1589
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.38%

The European currency showed corrective strength, rising to 1.16. This growth allowed the euro to move away from the seven‑month lows of mid‑March and was a direct reaction to Donald Trump’s unexpected statement about a possible short-term withdrawal of the US contingent from Iran. The shift in the geopolitical landscape forced investors once again to revise their expectations regarding the actions of the European Central Bank. Current market expectations have shifted toward two rate hikes in 2026. This decision looks more moderate than the outlook at the beginning of the week, when, at the peak of the escalation, three hikes were priced in. Notably, before the start of the military conflict, markets did not expect any tightening by the ECB in 2026 at all, even allowing for a scenario of cautious easing.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• 저항 레벨: 1.1538, 1.1572, 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency corrected on Wednesday after a confident rise on Tuesday. Intraday initiative shifted to sellers, but the pair is now trading near support levels. Under such market conditions, intraday focus should be on buying from 1.1511 or 1.1490, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer reaction. For selling, resistance at 1.1538 may serve as an entry point, but it is weaker than 1.1572.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1511
• Res: 1.1538
• Note: Buying should be considered from 1.1511 or 1.1490, but with confirmation. Selling can be considered from 1.1538, but with a tight stop‑loss.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3226
• 폐장 전: 1.3304
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.59%

The British pound rose to 1.33 dollars on Wednesday, rebounding from four‑month lows amid the first real hopes for de‑escalation of the conflict with Iran. The currency began to recover after an extremely weak March, during which the pound lost 1.9%, marking the sharpest monthly decline in the past nine months. However, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains the main risk factor, as the effective blockade of this route continues to keep global oil and gas prices at abnormally high levels. This creates a threat of stagflation for the United Kingdom – a period of low growth combined with high inflation. According to analysts, if the maritime blockade persists, inflation in the UK may accelerate back to 5% within the next year, putting the Bank of England in an extremely difficult position.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3179, 1.3125
• 저항 레벨: 1.3262, 1.3322, 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound, following the euro, lost Tuesday’s gains. The price again settled below 1.3262 and is now heading toward a retest of 1.3179. Under such market conditions, buying should be reconsidered only after the initiative from the 1.3179 support. For selling, the most optimal level is 1.3262.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3179
• Res: 1.3262
• Note: Buy orders are appropriate from the 1.3179 level, but confirmation is required. For sell orders, the most favorable level is 1.3262.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 158.76
• 폐장 전: 158.79
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.02%

On Thursday, the Japanese yen weakened to 159.2 per dollar, nearly reaching the psychological barrier of 160 yen. The reversal occurred amid broad strengthening of the US dollar following Donald Trump’s address to the nation. Although the US President stated that the conflict with Iran is nearing completion, his warning of possible intensification of military strikes in the coming weeks prompted investors to revise their inflation expectations. Investors are closely watching the Bank of Japan ahead of the April 27-28 meeting, where the probability of a rate hike is currently estimated at 71%.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 158.37, 157.87, 157.32
• 저항 레벨: 159.29, 159.97, 161.29

After testing the 158.37 support level, quotes sharply jumped to 159.33 amid US dollar strength. Sellers are not providing sufficient resistance here, increasing the likelihood of further growth. Today, focus should be on buying after a breakout of 159.33 or on a pullback to 158.94. There are no optimal entry points for selling at the moment.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.94
• Res: 159.33
• Note: Buying is appropriate after a breakout of 159.33 or on a pullback to 158.94. There are no optimal selling points now.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4681
• 폐장 전: 4756
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +1.60%

Gold showed a sharp decline of more than 4%, falling to 4,580 dollars per ounce and breaking a four‑day recovery cycle. The main driver of the sell‑off was the broad strengthening of the US dollar after Donald Trump’s address to the nation from the White House. The absence of concrete timelines for an immediate ceasefire and his warning about possible intensification of strikes on Iran in the next two to three weeks forced investors to revise their short‑term strategies. The situation is worsened by the renewed rise in oil prices, which immediately affected inflation expectations. Since the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, energy futures have climbed again, increasing pressure on the global economy. For the gold market, this creates a double negative effect: on one hand, the nominal value of the dollar, in which gold is priced, is rising; on the other, expectations of tighter monetary policy from major central banks are strengthening.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4528, 4304, 4169
• 저항 레벨: 4708, 4732, 4801

After testing liquidity above 4732, the price sharply declined. Technically, the price will now seek liquidity below support, the nearest level being 4528. Today, intraday focus should be on selling toward this level. Buying is appropriate from 4528, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. A breakout of 4528 is highly undesirable, as it would undermine the stability of the upward trend.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4528
• Res: 4708
• Note: Intraday focus is on selling toward 4528. Buying is appropriate from 4528, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative.