@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.04.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1540
• 폐장 전: 1.1594
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.47%

The Eurozone PMI for March 2026 confirmed that the EU economy is dangerously hovering on the brink of stagnation, posting a reading of 50.7. Although the figure was revised slightly higher from preliminary estimates, it reflects the weakest private‑sector growth in nine months. The main drag came from soaring energy prices and logistical chaos caused by “Operation Epic Fury,” which led to a complete halt in services‑sector growth and stagnation in manufacturing. With new orders and export demand declining, companies began cutting staff at the fastest pace in 13 months. Output‑price inflation reached its highest level since February 2024, putting the ECB in an extremely difficult position ahead of the April 30 meeting.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1666, 1.1639, 1.1605
• 저항 레벨: 1.1724, 1.1747, 1.1766

The euro surged sharply amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Investors returned to risk‑sensitive currencies, triggering a steep decline in the US dollar Index. Technically, the euro has re‑entered a bullish trend, and the price is now moving toward resistance at 1.1724. Long positions may be considered from support levels at 1.1666 or 1.1639. EMA lines can also serve as dynamic support. There are no optimal entry points for short positions at the moment.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.1666
• Res: 1.1724
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1666 or 1.1639. EMA lines can also serve as dynamic support. No optimal short setups at this time.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3236
• 폐장 전: 1.3289
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.40%

The UK Services PMI for March 2026 was revised downward to 50.5, barely staying above the stagnation threshold. This is the weakest reading in 11 months and clearly shows how the British economy is beginning to “suffocate” under the consequences of the Persian Gulf conflict. For the first time since November 2025, new orders declined, while export sales fell at the fastest pace in a year. Despite slowing growth, cost inflation accelerated to an 11‑month high, putting the Bank of England in a deadlock: economic activity is fading, yet resource prices (fuel and raw materials) continue to rise uncontrollably.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3378, 1.3321, 1.3252
• 저항 레벨: 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

The British pound, following the euro, surged sharply amid de‑escalation in the Middle East. Prices jumped impulsively, forming a new bullish phase. The pair is now moving toward liquidity above 1.3457, where the first profit‑taking may occur. Intraday focus should remain on long positions, though the challenge is that the price has deviated significantly from the EMA lines. The best approach is to wait for a pullback toward support at 1.3378 or toward the EMA lines. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 1.3378
• Res: 1.3457
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from 1.3378 or from the EMA lines. No optimal short setups at this time.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 159.69
• 폐장 전: 159.54
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.09%

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen showed a sharp rebound, rising above 158.5 per dollar. This powerful bounce occurred after the currency tested the dangerous 160‑yen zone, which in 2024 had already triggered large‑scale interventions by Tokyo. The main driver of optimism was the 14‑day “bilateral ceasefire” reached with Donald Trump’s mediation. The U.S. decision to postpone strikes on Iranian infrastructure in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and halting Israeli actions instantly reduced the geopolitical risk premium, allowing the yen to partially recover. In addition to external relief, the yen is supported by Japan’s active diplomatic stance. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has engaged directly in negotiations with Tehran and Washington to secure stable energy supplies for Japan.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 158.02, 157.32
• 저항 레벨: 158.37, 158.79

The yen also strengthened due to the decline in the US dollar Index. Technically, the pair has shifted into a bearish trend. The price is now heading toward the liquidity pocket below 158.02, where the first profit‑taking on earlier short positions may occur. Intraday bias remains bearish, but the price is significantly stretched away from the EMA lines. For new short positions, it is better to wait for a local pullback toward 158.37 or toward the EMA lines. There are no optimal long setups at the moment.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 158.02
• Res: 158.79
• Note: For short entries, wait for a pullback toward 158.37 or the EMA lines. No optimal long setups at this time.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4658
• 폐장 전: 4706
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +1.03%

Gold posted an impressive recovery, rising more than 2% and consolidating above the psychological level of 4800 dollars per ounce. This surge was a direct result of dramatic de‑escalation in the Middle East: Donald Trump’s decision to postpone strikes on Iran and his acknowledgment of Iran’s “10‑point plan” as a real basis for negotiations radically changed the market landscape. The temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military coordination and Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire created a two‑week diplomatic window, instantly reducing geopolitical tension. Despite the current optimism, gold remains in a zone of turbulence, as the ceasefire is only temporary. The market is watching closely to see whether this “real basis for negotiations” will evolve into a long‑term agreement or whether Iran’s continued control over navigation in the strait will trigger a new wave of volatility once the 14‑day period expires.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4801, 4700
• 저항 레벨: 4900, 4963

Gold surged impulsively, breaking out of a three‑day accumulation zone. The price quickly jumped above 4800, potentially opening the path toward 4900. However, the strong deviation from the EMA lines complicates the search for optimal long entries. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions are best considered from 4801, keeping in mind that the price may correct toward the EMA lines. There are no optimal short setups at the moment.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Up
• Sup: 4801
• Res: 4900
• Note: Intraday long positions are best considered from 4801, though a correction toward the EMA lines is possible. No optimal short setups at this time.