@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.05.18

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1668
• 폐장 전: 1.1625
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.37%

The euro fell below 1.165 dollars, reaching its lowest level since early April and showing a weekly decline of more than 1% against the US dollar. Pressure on the European currency intensified amid growing concerns that the war with Iran is beginning to have a more serious negative impact on the global economy, while simultaneously increasing inflationary pressure through rising energy prices. Despite more hawkish rate expectations, the euro remains under pressure due to broad US dollar strength and fears that accelerating inflation will be accompanied by weakening economic activity in the region.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1605, 1.1560
• 저항 레벨: 1.1656, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

The situation has hardly changed compared to Friday. The euro remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar. At the moment, the price has fallen to the support level of 1.1605, where a corrective rebound is possible. This is indicated by slowing downside momentum and MACD divergence. For long positions, consider entries from 1.1605, but with confirmation, as this is a counter‑trend setup. For selling, it is recommended to wait for a pullback to the resistance level of 1.1656.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1605
• Res: 1.1656
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1605, but with confirmation. For selling, wait for a pullback to 1.1656.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3401
• 폐장 전: 1.3324
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.58%

The British pound fell below 1.34 dollars, reaching its lowest level since early April and showing a weekly decline of nearly 2% against the US dollar. Pressure on the currency intensified amid growing political uncertainty in the United Kingdom following reports that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham may challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party. Traders increased expectations of further tightening by the Bank of England, pricing in around 70 basis points of rate hikes by year‑end. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill also supported the need for further rate increases, noting that the energy shock caused by the Middle East conflict continues to intensify inflationary pressure in the UK economy.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3300, 1.3252
• 저항 레벨: 1.3383, 1.3463, 1.3514, 1.3553, 1.3596

The British pound, like the euro, remains under pressure from the strengthening US dollar and domestic political uncertainty. Technically, the pound has nearly reached the demand zone near the support level of 1.3300. Given the MACD divergence, there is a high probability of a corrective rebound. Under such market conditions, long positions may be considered from 1.3300, but with confirmation. For selling, the best level to consider is the resistance at 1.3383.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3300
• Res: 1.3383
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3300, but with confirmation. For selling, wait for a pullback to 1.3383.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 158.33
• 폐장 전: 158.77
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.28%

On Monday, the Japanese yen weakened to around 159 per dollar, continuing its decline for the sixth consecutive session amid persistent US dollar strength. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and the lack of progress in negotiations between the US and Iran continue to fuel concerns about disruptions to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, increasing inflation risks, and boosting the attractiveness of the dollar. Additional investor attention is focused on the USD/JPY pair approaching the 160 level – a threshold at which Japanese authorities previously intervened in late April to support the national currency. Market participants remain cautious amid signals from Tokyo indicating readiness to intervene again if necessary.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 158.28, 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• 저항 레벨: 159.01, 159.42

The yen continues to weaken against the dollar. Technically, the price has reached the resistance level of 159.01. Given the MACD divergence, a correction to 158.60 or even 158.28 is possible, but a full reversal is unlikely, as seller reaction remains weak. However, Tokyo may intervene at any moment to support the currency.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 158.28
• Res: 159.01
• Note: Short positions may be considered from 159.01, but with confirmation as part of a corrective pullback. Long positions may be considered from EMA lines or liquidity voids.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4649
• 폐장 전: 4539
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -2.42%

On Friday, gold fell to around 4600 dollars per ounce. The market came under pressure from fresh US inflation data: wholesale prices in April rose at the fastest pace since 2022, and consumer inflation reached its highest level since 2023. The increase in inflationary pressure is primarily linked to the prolonged Middle East conflict and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to disrupt global energy supplies and support high oil prices. Against this backdrop, markets have almost completely abandoned expectations of US rate cuts this year, and some investors are already pricing in the possibility of an additional rate hike by December.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4511, 4482, 4431, 4350
• 저항 레벨: 4572, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold prices fell sharply on Friday and reached the demand zone below 4511. The level of 4482 became the point where the sell‑off stopped. Given the MACD divergence, a correction toward 4572 is quite likely. For long positions, the 4511 level may be considered, but with intraday confirmation. For selling, evaluate the price reaction at 4572.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4511
• Res: 4572
• Note: Long positions are possible intraday as part of a corrective rebound from 4511, but with reduced risk. For selling, consider 4572 or EMA lines.