@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.05.21

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1604
• 폐장 전: 1.1623
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.16%

The EUR/USD pair ended Wednesday’s session with gains, successfully rebounding from the six‑week low reached earlier in the day. The euro’s recovery was driven by broad short covering after the US dollar gave up its morning gains. Additional support for the European currency came from a sharp drop in oil prices of more than 5%, which is a significant positive factor for the import‑dependent Eurozone economy. The outlook for future ECB monetary policy remains in focus, especially in the context of geopolitical risks. Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch emphasized that the lack of progress in resolving the Iran conflict by June could be a strong argument for raising interest rates. Under current conditions, swap markets already price in an 82% probability of such a move at the June 11 meeting, reflecting the regulator’s high sensitivity to developments in the energy situation.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1613, 1.1583, 1.1547
• 저항 레벨: 1.1629, 1.1656, 1.1659, 1.1681, 1.1696, 1.1722

The euro finally reached the 1.1583 support level yesterday, after which the price showed a sharp bullish reaction. The price is now forming a narrow range between 1.1613-1.1630. The intraday bias remains bullish, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction. Under such market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered from 1.1613, but with confirmation. The price may potentially correct toward 1.1656. An impulsive consolidation below 1.1613 may trigger a renewed bearish trend.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1613
• Res: 1.1630
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1613, but only with confirmation. An impulsive consolidation below 1.1613 may trigger a renewed bearish trend.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3397
• 폐장 전: 1.3435
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.28%

In the United Kingdom, headline inflation for April fell to 2.8%, below expectations and reaching its lowest level since March 2025, supported by the regulator’s energy‑price caps. Despite a local spike in fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict, core inflation and services inflation slowed, confirming a broader cooling of price pressures. The combination of low inflation and signs of economic slowdown forced market participants to revise their expectations toward a more dovish stance: current pricing reflects only two potential Bank of England rate hikes by year‑end, limiting the upside potential for the British currency.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3400, 1.3381, 1.3300, 1.3252
• 저항 레벨: 1.3453, 1.3514, 1.3553, 1.3596

An SMT divergence is forming again between EUR/USD and GBP/USD, but this time in the opposite direction. This scenario will likely lead to a period of sideways trading. At the moment, the pound is in a wide range between 1.3381-1.3453. The intraday bias is bullish, but the price may easily retest both 1.3381 and 1.3400. These levels may be considered for long positions, but only with confirmation. There are no optimal short‑entry points now.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3400
• Res: 1.3453
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3400 or 1.3381, but only with reaction at one of these levels. No optimal short‑entry points now.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 159.03
• 폐장 전: 158.91
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -0.08%

On Thursday, the Japanese yen strengthened, rising above 159 per dollar and breaking its prolonged decline. The main driver of optimism in the FX market was Donald Trump’s statement that US-Iran negotiations had entered the final stage. Investors expect a peace agreement to be signed soon and the reopening of the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, which has already pushed oil prices lower and weakened the US dollar. Additional support for the yen came from fresh macroeconomic data from Tokyo. In April, Japanese exports surged 14.8% year‑over‑year, far exceeding analyst expectations, thanks to strong demand from China, the US, ASEAN countries, and the European Union. The strong export performance confirms that Japan’s external sector remains resilient despite recent logistical challenges. Despite the local rebound, the yen still trades dangerously close to the psychological barrier of 160 per dollar – the level that, according to analysts, triggered large‑scale currency interventions by Japanese authorities in late April and early May.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 158.28, 158.00, 157.33, 156.98
• 저항 레벨: 159.05, 159.42

The yen continues to trade near the resistance level of 159.05. Sellers are trying to defend the level, but buyers are preventing the price from falling below 158.65, creating an accumulation range between these levels. For long positions, wait for a breakout above 159.05, which would open the path toward 159.86. However, small interventions from 159.05 are also possible, potentially pushing the price back to 158.65 or lower.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 158.65
• Res: 159.05
• Note: Long positions are appropriate after consolidation above 159.05 or from 158.65 in case of a correction. No optimal short‑entry points now.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4448
• 폐장 전: 4543
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +2.13%

On Wednesday, gold recovered, rising above $4530 per ounce and retracing the drop to a two‑month low of $4490 recorded in the previous session. The positive movement was driven by stabilization in the Treasury market, caused by easing inflation concerns amid expectations of a near‑term resolution of the US-Iran conflict. Progress in negotiations, supported by the resumption of energy shipments through the Persian Gulf, reduced the risk of a harsh Federal Reserve policy scenario, which supported the precious metal. However, market sentiment remains mixed due to hawkish signals in the latest FOMC minutes, where most committee members acknowledged the possibility of rate hikes this year if inflation remains above the 2% target.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 4509, 4431, 4350
• 저항 레벨: 4581, 4616, 4648, 4707

Gold has formed a localized balance below the 4509 support. Given the bullish intraday bias, there is a high probability of a corrective rise toward 4581. For long positions, EMA lines or the 4509 support level may be considered. Buyers must prevent the price from consolidating below 4509 again – otherwise, gold selling will resume.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4509
• Res: 4581
• Note: Intraday long positions are possible from EMA lines or from 4509. Profit target — 4581. No optimal short‑entry points now.