@의 주요 통화 쌍 분석 개요 2026.06.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.1386
• 폐장 전: 1.1421
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.30%

The euro strengthened above 1.14 USD, recovering last week’s losses amid expectations of key events at the annual ECB forum in Sintra (held from June 29 to July 1, 2026). Investors expect signals on future monetary policy from ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, whose joint panel discussion is scheduled for Wednesday. Stabilization of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and the resumption of shipping have reduced inflation concerns and expectations for oil prices, leading to a revision of market rates in favor of less aggressive tightening by Europe’s central banks. Additional background for the market came from fresh inflation data in Spain: the harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in June remained at 3.6% year‑on‑year, maintaining stability for the third consecutive month.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.1384, 1.1359, 1.1330, 1.1279
• 저항 레벨: 1.1430, 1.1478, 1.1523, 1.1559

On Monday, the euro reached the resistance level of 1.1430, where sellers once again showed sharp initiative, leading to a decline toward the 1.1383 level. It is important to assess price action here. If buyers respond at the level with initiative, intraday long positions from 1.1383 may be considered. A breakout and consolidation below 1.1383 will likely trigger a decline toward 1.1359.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1383
• Res: 1.1430
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.1383, but with confirmation. For short trades, it is necessary to see price consolidation below 1.1383.

The GBP/USD currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 1.3198
• 폐장 전: 1.3256
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.44 %

The British pound held above 1.32 USD, recovering after falling to seven‑month lows thanks to pre‑election promises by Andy Burnham. The sole candidate for the leadership of the Labour Party announced his intention to grant more fiscal powers to the regions while firmly pledging to maintain strict budget discipline. Although the pound has lost more than 1.5% over the month due to political uncertainty and a stronger dollar, the market reacted cautiously to Burnham’s plans, seeing them as an attempt to balance economic development with responsible public spending. The currency’s dynamics also continue to be influenced by falling oil prices after de‑escalation in the Strait of Hormuz and the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric, which weakens expectations of further rate hikes by the Bank of England.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 1.3209, 1.3184, 1.3155, 1.3093
• 저항 레벨: 1.3262, 1.3327, 1.3390

The British pound reached the resistance level of 1.3262, where sellers showed initiative. The nearest support level where buyers may meet the price is 1.3227. If buyers do not react here, the price will continue declining toward 1.3209. Under such market conditions, intraday long trades may be considered if buyers react at 1.3227 or 1.3209. There are currently no optimal entry points for short trades.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3227
• Res: 1.3262
• Note: Long trades are considered from 1.3227 or 1.3209, but with confirmation. There are currently no optimal entry points for short trades.

The USD/JPY currency pair

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 161.71
• 폐장 전: 161.93
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: +0.14%

On Tuesday, the Japanese yen updated its lowest level since 1986, falling below 162 per dollar amid a massive interest rate gap between the Bank of Japan and the Fed, as well as active carry‑trade operations. The weakening of the currency raises concerns about possible intervention by Tokyo authorities, who have already promised to respond decisively to excessive volatility. The situation is worsened by Japan’s high dependence on energy imports, whose prices remain unstable due to the conflict in the Middle East. May industrial production data, which came in weaker than expected, confirmed the vulnerability of supply chains to external shocks, which, combined with hawkish expectations for the Fed’s rate, continues to pressure the yen despite the Bank of Japan’s attempts to normalize monetary policy.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 162.05, 161.90, 161.56, 161.34
• 저항 레벨: 162.40

The Japanese yen consolidated above 162.00, thereby updating a 40‑year low against the dollar. Sellers showed activity at the 162.40 level, but this looks more like profit‑taking than initiative. Under such market conditions, the bias remains bullish, and traders are better off focusing on intraday long trades. For long positions, levels 162.05 or 161.90 are considered, but with confirmation. For short trades, focus on the 162.40 level, but only if sellers show reaction. Currency intervention by Japanese authorities is also not ruled out.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 162.05
• Res: 162.40
• Note: Long trades are considered from 162.05 or 161.90, but with confirmation. Currency intervention by Japanese authorities is also not ruled out.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

통화 쌍의 기술적 지표:

• 개장 전: 4074
• 폐장 전: 4016
• 전날 대비 # % 변동: -1.44%

On Monday, gold prices fell to 4040 USD per ounce, putting the asset on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline with a cumulative loss of more than 10%. Pressure on prices is intensifying amid diplomatic maneuvers around the Middle Eastern conflict: after a series of strikes on US facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain, Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary ceasefire and peace talks in Qatar scheduled for today. Despite harsh warnings from Donald Trump regarding the consequences of a possible breakdown of the agreement, the prospect of de‑escalation itself reduces demand for gold as a safe‑haven asset, forcing investors to reassess their positions ahead of new macroeconomic reports.

거래 권고

• 지원 레벨: 3972, 3884
• 저항 레벨: 4014, 4087, 4138, 4171, 4232, 4273, 4323

Gold consolidated below the range and continued its downward trend. Yesterday, the price impulsively broke the 4014 level and fell to 3972, testing liquidity below last week’s low. Considering that after the liquidity test, bullish initiative appeared and the price re‑consolidated above 3972, intraday long trades toward 4014 may be considered, but with small risk, since these trades will be against the trend. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 4014 or at the EMA line.

대체 시나리오:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4014
• Res: 3972
• Note: Intraday long trades from 3972 are appropriate, but with low risk. For short trades, evaluate price reaction at 4014 or at the EMA line.