Precious metals hit new records. Oil rises to a 3-month high

At the close of Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) declined by 0.80%. The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.19%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq (US100) closed lower by 0.10%. The US stock market shifted to a decline in the second half of the session as investors cautiously assessed the start of the corporate earnings season, political uncertainty, and mixed macroeconomic signals. The initial rally, fueled by softer core inflation data and hopes for Fed rate cuts later this year, quickly evaporated following renewed pressure from geopolitical and regulatory risks. December data showed a stabilization of Headline CPI and a further deceleration of Core Inflation to multi-year lows, which the market interpreted as a signal favoring a more dovish Fed policy over the long term.

European equity markets traded without a single trend on Tuesday. The German DAX (DE40) edged up 0.06%, the French CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.14%, the Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) rose by 0.07%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) finished the day down 0.03%. Indices were supported by softer-than-expected US core inflation data, which eased fears of prolonged Fed hawkishness and reinforced expectations for rate cuts toward the end of the year.

On Tuesday, silver (XAG) surpassed the $90 per ounce mark for the first time, driven by easing inflationary pressure in the US and reduced risks of near-term monetary policy tightening. Growing interest in safe-haven assets provided an additional boost to precious metals demand. Capital flows intensified following news of the investigation into the Fed Chair and the announced US trade measures against countries interacting with Iran, raising the overall level of uncertainty and supporting silver prices.

Platinum (XPT) climbed back toward record levels, exceeding $2,430 per ounce, amid steady demand for precious metals and rising expectations for US monetary policy easing. The fundamental outlook also remains favorable: structural supply constraints, particularly production cuts in South Africa, combined with stable industrial demand, continue to support platinum quotes.

WTI crude oil prices surged on Tuesday, gaining 3% to reach $61.16 per barrel, marking the highest level in the last three months. The rally was driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, primarily surrounding Iran, where tough rhetoric from the US intensified fears of potential disruptions to regional oil supplies. The combination of geopolitical and infrastructural risks significantly increased the supply premium and pushed prices to new local highs.

Asian markets mostly rose yesterday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (JP225) surged by 3.10%, the Chinese FTSE China A50 (CHA50) fell by 0.55%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) rose by 0.90%, and the Australian ASX 200 (AU200) posted a positive result of 0.56%. The Hang Seng Index extended its rally for a third consecutive session, supported by all key sectors. Sentiment was improved by signs of easing trade frictions following reports of the European Union revising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which lowered concerns regarding external trade pressure on the region’s economy.

The Australian dollar traded near $0.668, remaining within a narrow range amid uncertainty over the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next moves. Estimates for a rate hike in February declined, reflecting mixed macro statistics, while expectations for policy tightening by May remain high. Fourth-quarter inflation data and the upcoming employment report will be the key benchmarks for investors, potentially determining the timing of the next rate hike and setting the direction for the Australian currency.