Gambaran Analisis untuk Pasangan Mata Wang Utama pada 2025.10.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.1705
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.1656
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.42 %

The euro fell to $1.1615, its lowest level since September 25, under pressure from renewed political uncertainty in France and a lack of new developments in the US, where the government shutdown continues. In France, Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu submitted his resignation on Monday, although President Emmanuel Macron asked him to continue negotiations to break the political deadlock by Wednesday evening. Betting markets put the probability of early elections this month at nearly 60%, although it remains unclear whether such a move would break the deadlock. In terms of data, industrial orders in Germany fell by 0.8% in August, missing projections of 1.4% growth and marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.1608
• Tahap rintangan: 1.1653, 1.1683, 1.1728, 1.1754, 1.1786, 1.1819

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is downward. The euro is heading towards testing the support level of 1.1608. A divergence is beginning to form on the MACD indicator. Moreover, an SMT divergence is beginning to form between EUR/USD and GBP/USD. These are signs of a reversal. It is too late to sell now, as the price has deviated significantly from the average lines. It is best to wait for a pullback to 1.1653 to sell. Buy deals can be considered from 1.1608, provided there is a reaction from buyers.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.1758 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.3483
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.3420
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.47 %

Today, the minutes of the Bank of England’s latest meeting will be published in the UK. The pound may regain its position amid market caution regarding the Bank of England’s (BoE) policy in the context of sustained inflationary pressure and a cooling labor market. At its August policy meeting, the Bank of England predicted that inflation would peak at around 4% in September. However, Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli and Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann warned last week that recent inflation shocks should not be viewed as temporary.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.3400, 1.3388, 1.3332, 1.3315
• Tahap rintangan: 1.3463, 1.3522, 1.3585

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD is a downtrend. The British pound fell to 1.3388. Below this level is a pool of liquidity, as well as a buy-side fair value zone. Such zones are often strong areas of interest from which the price reverses. This is especially true given the SMT divergence with the euro. Today, we are watching the price reaction. If the price accumulates slightly below the level and returns on momentum above 1.3400, this will open up opportunities for buying. If the price fails to consolidate above 1.3400, further declines should be expected.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the resistance level of 1.3532 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 150.28
• Ditutup Sebelum: 151.88
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +1.06 %

On Wednesday, the Japanese yen weakened to 152 per dollar, losing more than 3% over the week and reaching its lowest level since February, as weaker-than-expected wage data dampened prospects for interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. Real wages in Japan fell 1.4% year-on-year in August, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline, as inflation continued to outpace wage growth. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently said the Central Bank would resume raising rates if the economy and prices develop in line with expectations, although he warned of risks related to US tariffs. Investors also assessed Japan’s political outlook after Sanae Takaichi, a staunch supporter of Abenomics expansionary policies, won the race for prime minister. Her victory reinforced expectations of large budget spending and continued monetary easing.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 151.31, 149.95, 148.83, 147.81
• Tahap rintangan: 152.60

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen continues to depreciate amid the election of a new prime minister who is in favor of low interest rates. The gap that formed on Monday remains unclosed. The price has now reached the resistance level of 152.60. Given the divergence on the MACD indicator, there is a high probability of a corrective wave.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks through the support level of 147.05 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 3959
• Ditutup Sebelum: 3980
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.53%

On Wednesday, the price of gold exceeded $4,000 per ounce, reaching a new record high as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook. The US government shutdown, now in its second week, has delayed the release of key economic data, making it difficult to assess the state of the US economy. Despite this uncertainty, traders are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December. Gold has risen more than 50% this year amid trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and a weakening US dollar.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 4000, 3944, 3896, 3867, 3820, 3800
• Tahap rintangan: 4050

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold continues to rally. After testing the support level of 3950, the price skyrocketed and is now trading close to 4050. Divergence is intensifying, which means that a corrective wave could begin at any moment. Without a reverse impulse bearish reaction, it is not recommended to look for sell trades. For buy deals, it is worth waiting for a pullback to 4000, as the price has deviated significantly from the average lines.

Senario alternatif:

if the price breaks the support level of 3800 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.