Gambaran Analisis untuk Pasangan Mata Wang Utama pada 2026.03.24

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.1544
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.1614
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.60%

On Monday, the single European currency showed a confident recovery, rising to the 1.1600‑dollar mark. The euro managed to fully recoup early losses after President Donald Trump announced on his social network, Truth Social, a five‑day delay of strikes on Iran’s energy facilities. Trump described the current negotiations as “very good and productive,” giving markets hope for a peaceful resolution of the crisis. But the situation remains highly uncertain due to a sharp denial from Tehran. The fundamental backdrop for the European currency remains tense. Although the ECB kept interest rates unchanged last week, the regulator made a sharp revision of macroeconomic expectations: the inflation estimate for 2026 was raised to 2.6%, while economic growth predictions were lowered due to the war. Markets now price at least three ECB rate hikes by the end of 2026.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.1575, 1.1546, 1.1522, 1.1490
• Tahap rintangan: 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency rose sharply yesterday to 1.1639, where the price met seller resistance. At the moment, the price is trading near the support level of 1.1575, close to the EMA lines – here it is important to assess price action: buyer reaction at the level may trigger a new rise toward 1.1639. But if sellers manage to push through 1.1575, there is a high probability of a decline to 1.1546 or even 1.1522.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1575
• Res: 1.1639
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1575, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. A breakout of 1.1575 will open the way into the 1.1522-1.1546 zone.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.3305
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.3437
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.99%

On Monday, the British pound showed an impressive recovery, returning to the 1.34 dollar mark. The currency managed to recoup all daily losses thanks to a sharp shift in the geopolitical backdrop: President Donald Trump announced a five‑day delay of strikes on Iran, calling negotiations with Tehran “productive.” This statement came just hours before the expiration of the US ultimatum on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, allowing markets to temporarily breathe out and reducing safe‑haven demand for the US dollar. However, trader optimism remains fragile due to Tehran’s denial of this information. Despite the temporary pause, monetary expectations in the UK have undergone a fundamental shift. If before the conflict the market expected two rate cuts, investors are now preparing for a series of Bank of England rate hikes already this year.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.3378, 1.3344, 1.3300
• Tahap rintangan: 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

From a technical perspective, all prerequisites are in place to continue growth from the support level of 1.3378. But from a fundamental perspective, the pound currently has no reason to further strengthen, so a breakout above 1.3378 may resume the decline toward 1.3344 or 1.3300.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3378
• Res: 1.3457
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3378, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. A breakout of 1.3378 will open the way into the 1.3300-1.3344 zone.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 159.35
• Ditutup Sebelum: 158.41
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.59%

The Japanese yen again came under pressure, weakening to 158.5 per dollar. The currency lost part of the positions gained the day before amid a partial recovery in oil prices. For Japan, which is critically dependent on energy imports, any rise in oil prices automatically worsens the trade balance and increases pressure on the national currency. On the domestic front, inflation data added uncertainty. The Core Consumer Price Index in February rose only 1.6% – the lowest reading in four years. This slowdown resulted from government subsidies aimed at containing the cost of living. However, experts warn that this success may be temporary: the current surge in energy prices due to the war with Iran will inevitably appear in statistics in the coming months, creating a new wave of inflationary pressure.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 159.26, 157.87, 157.32
• Tahap rintangan: 159.03, 159.62, 160.21

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply yesterday amid dollar weakness following Trump’s statements. But there are no fundamental prerequisites for further strengthening at the moment. Technically, the price tested liquidity below the support level of 158.26 and is now aiming to test liquidity at resistance levels. Under such market conditions, sell trades may be considered from 159.03, but with confirmation in the form of seller initiative. A repeated test of 158.26 will lead to further decline toward 157.87.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.26
• Res: 159.03
• Note: Sell trades are considered from 159.03, but with confirmation. A breakout of support at 158.26 on impulse will open the way to 157.87.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 4479
• Ditutup Sebelum: 4406
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -1.65%

On Monday, the gold market showed impressive volatility, managing to recoup a significant part of the morning collapse and consolidate above 4,480 dollars per ounce. The start of the trading session was catastrophic: amid “hawkish” rate expectations and panic sell‑offs, the metal’s price briefly plunged to January levels (around 4,100 dollars). However, Donald Trump’s unexpected statement about a five‑day moratorium on strikes on Iranian power plants signaled to investors to take profits on short positions and partially return to the asset. Although Tehran officially denies any “productive negotiations,” the market interpreted US actions as a willingness to actively suppress the energy premium, temporarily reducing the risk of an immediate stagflationary shock.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 4169, 4027
• Tahap rintangan: 4510, 4615

Liquidity in gold is low, leading to volatile price movements. After yesterday’s test of the liquidity pocket below 4169, the price sharply corrected. The intraday bias is now with buyers, and there is a high probability of a repeated test of 4510. But beyond that, the upside potential is limited, and the price may resume its decline. Under such market conditions, the focus should be on price reaction at the resistance level of 4510.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Down
• Sup: 4169
• Res: 4510
• Note: Intraday, we look for buys up to 4510. If sellers show initiative from 4510, the price may resume its downward rally.