Gambaran Analisis untuk Pasangan Mata Wang Utama pada 2026.03.25

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.1615
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.1611
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.03%

On Tuesday, the single European currency came under heavy pressure, falling below the psychological mark of 1.16 dollars. The main driver of the decline was a catastrophic PMI report, which confirmed investors’ worst fears: the energy shock caused by the four‑week conflict with Iran has begun to destroy the real sector of the Eurozone economy. Business‑activity growth collapsed to a ten‑month low, while production costs surged to their highest levels in three years due to the blockade of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. For the ECB, a classic stagflation trap has formed. Although the regulator kept rates unchanged at the previous meeting, markets are now “doubling down” on a series of aggressive hikes through the end of 2026. Investors believe Christine Lagarde will not be able to ignore the explosive rise in inflation expectations, even if it leads to a deep recession.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.1575, 1.1546, 1.1522, 1.1490
• Tahap rintangan: 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency is forming a flat accumulation in the 1.1575-1.1639 range. Yesterday’s scenario remains relevant: long positions may be considered from 1.1575, but only with confirmation from buyers. A breakout of 1.1575 will open the way toward 1.1546 or lower.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1575
• Res: 1.1639
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1575, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. A breakout of 1.1575 will open the way into the 1.1522-1.1546 zone.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.3430
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.3416
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.10%

Yesterday, the British pound lost the advantage it had gained the day before and fell to the 1.34 dollar mark. The currency came under crossfire from disappointing domestic statistics and growing skepticism regarding Donald Trump’s peace initiatives. The main internal shock for the pound was the release of PMI indices. The pace of UK economic growth slowed to its lowest level since September 2025, clearly demonstrating the destructive impact of the war on the business cycle. Particularly alarming was the surge in production‑cost inflation, which jumped to its fastest pace since “Black Wednesday” in 1992. The combination of stagnating output and explosive cost growth places the British economy in a classic stagflation trap, where the energy shock from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz hits all supply chains.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.3378, 1.3344, 1.3300
• Tahap rintangan: 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

From a technical perspective, the situation has not changed compared to yesterday. The pound is still trading in the 1.3378-1.3457 range. Today, the focus is again on the support level of 1.3378: if buyers show reaction here, further price growth may follow; a breakout and consolidation below 1.3378 will open the way toward 1.3344 and lower.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3378
• Res: 1.3457
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.3378, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer initiative. A breakout of 1.3378 will open the way into the 1.3300-1.3344 zone.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 158.38
• Ditutup Sebelum: 158.65
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.17%

The Japanese yen stabilized at 158.7 per dollar on Wednesday, showing relative calm after a turbulent start to the week. The main factor supporting the Japanese currency was the decline in oil prices, triggered by renewed hopes for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Reports of a 15‑point US plan and a proposal for a one‑month ceasefire to Iran eased fears of an energy shock, which is extremely painful for Japan’s import‑dependent economy. Market attention was drawn to reports that Japan’s Ministry of Finance has begun probing the possibility of interventions not only in the currency market but also in the oil‑futures market. Such an unusual step underscores the direct dependence of the yen’s exchange rate on oil prices amid the current military crisis.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 158.26, 157.87, 157.32
• Tahap rintangan: 159.03, 159.62, 160.21

The Japanese yen has stabilized within the wide 158.26-159.03 range. The price is retesting the upper boundary, increasing the likelihood of a breakout and further growth. Therefore, traders should focus on price reaction at this level: a breakout and consolidation above 159.03 will open the way toward 159.62. If sellers react at 159.03, the intraday bias will shift back toward the bears, opening selling opportunities.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 158.26
• Res: 159.03
• Note: Sell trades are considered from 159.03, but with confirmation. A breakout of resistance at 159.03 on impulse will open the way to 159.62.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 4419
• Ditutup Sebelum: 4476
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +1.29%

Gold prices showed a strong rebound, rising to 4,600 dollars per ounce. This growth continued the recovery after the metal lost a quarter of its value from the March highs. The main driver of optimism was reports of a diplomatic breakthrough: according to The New York Times, Washington sent Tehran a 15‑point proposal suggesting a one‑month ceasefire. Investors interpreted this as a real chance for de‑escalation, despite Donald Trump simultaneously ordering the deployment of 2,000 troops to the region to weaken Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 4472, 4169, 4027
• Tahap rintangan: 4615, 4732

Gold managed to consolidate above 4472, while the intraday bias remains bullish. This is not yet a full reversal, but it is clearly a deep correction that may become the basis for a complete trend reversal. It is crucial for buyers to keep the price above the support level of 4472 to maintain upward momentum. Otherwise, the downward movement may resume.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4472
• Res: 4615
• Note: Intraday, look for buys from 4472 or from EMA lines. If sellers show initiative and the price consolidates below 4472, the downtrend may resume with renewed strength.