Gambaran Analisis untuk Pasangan Mata Wang Utama pada 2026.06.12

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.1536
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.1578
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.36%

The European Central Bank at its June meeting made a historic decision, raising key interest rates by 25 basis points. This tightening of monetary policy became the first since 2023 and marked a forced reversal in the regulator’s course. The main trigger for Frankfurt’s decisive actions was the large‑scale energy shock caused by the war in the Middle East, the escalation of the conflict around Iran, and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The ECB leadership emphasized that the military conflict directly increases global and domestic inflationary pressure, therefore the rate hike is justified under all scenarios assessing its impact on the Eurozone outlook. Against the backdrop of the ongoing commodity crisis, ECB economists significantly worsened macroeconomic expectations, raising expectations for price growth and lowering estimates of economic expansion. The regulator now expects overall inflation in the Eurozone to reach 3.0% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.1542, 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Tahap rintangan: 1.1586, 1.1610, 1.1630, 1.1651

The euro strengthened sharply yesterday after testing the 1.1511 level. The medium‑term bearish trend is shifting into a flat. At the moment, the price has tested liquidity near the resistance level and is now declining. EMA lines or the support level at 1.1542 may serve as a base for further growth. For selling, we consider 1.1586 or 1.1610, but only with confirmation.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1542
• Res: 1.1586
• Note: Intraday long positions may be considered from the support level 1.1542 or from EMA lines with a target of 1.1586. For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at resistances 1.1586 and 1.1610.

 

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 1.3369
• Ditutup Sebelum: 1.3416
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +0.35%

All investor attention has now shifted toward Friday’s release of macroeconomic statistics for April, including industrial production, the trade balance, and GDP. According to analysts’ consensus predictions, the UK economy most likely recorded a 0.1% decline in April. The main reasons for the cooling of business activity are the direct negative impact of the Iranian conflict on the consumer sector and business investment, as well as internal political instability, which is intensifying amid uncertainty surrounding the Labour Party leadership.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 1.3379, 1.3336, 1.3309, 1.3252
• Tahap rintangan: 1.3421, 1.3459, 1.3483, 1.3507

After testing liquidity below 1.3336, the British pound expanded the flat range to 1.3336-1.3421. Yesterday the price tested the liquidity pocket above 1.3421, after which a bearish reaction followed. Under such market conditions, today there is a high probability of a decline toward the EMA lines or toward the support level 1.3379 (liquidity void area). For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at 1.3421, which may act as resistance more than once.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3379
• Res: 1.3421
• Note: Intraday long positions may be considered from the support level 1.3379 or from EMA lines with a target of 1.3421. For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at the resistance 1.3421.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 160.50
• Ditutup Sebelum: 159.88
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: -0.39%

USD/JPY fell by 0.4%, allowing the yen to rebound from a six‑week low. The main driver of the Japanese currency’s strengthening was massive short covering amid falling US Treasury yields and a more than 2% drop in oil prices. For Japan, which imports over 90% of its energy resources, cheaper commodities reduce stagflation risks. The yen was also supported by monetary expectations – the market estimates the probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike by the Bank of Japan at the June 16 meeting at a record 95%.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 160.05, 159.83, 159.67, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65
• Tahap rintangan: 160.26, 160.53, 161.29

The Japanese yen sharply corrected from the resistance level 160.53. The price fell to 159.67, where a sharp V‑shaped reversal occurred. At the moment, the price is again moving toward levels above the psychological mark of 160. Under such market conditions, for selling we evaluate the price reaction at the resistance level 160.28 (liquidity zone above) and at the root of the downward impulse at 160.53. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 160.05
• Res: 160.53
• Note: For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at the liquidity zone above 160.28 and at the root of the downward impulse 160.53. There are no optimal entry points for buying at the moment.

 

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indikator teknikal pasangan mata wang:

• Dibuka Sebelum: 4070
• Ditutup Sebelum: 4211
• % perubahan sepanjang hari terakhir: +3.46%

A dramatic session unfolded in the precious metals market. During the main trading hours, gold collapsed to its lowest level in 6.5 months, and silver hit a two‑and‑a‑half‑month low. The main pressure factor was the surge of the US dollar Index to a two‑month peak. The situation was worsened by ongoing strikes between the US and Iran, which kept oil prices elevated and fueled global inflation risks. In response, central banks began acting more aggressively: the ECB raised its rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, and the Bank of Japan is expected to take a similar step next week. However, during the post‑market electronic session, the trend reversed sharply, and gold instantly jumped more than $60 per ounce. A powerful trigger was Donald Trump’s unexpected announcement canceling military strikes on Iran and signaling the proximity of a peace agreement, which crashed oil prices and restored investor optimism. Fundamental support also came from fresh Asian data: the People’s Bank of China reported that in May it increased its gold reserves by 320 thousand ounces – to 74.96 million troy ounces.

Cadangan perdagangan

• Tahap sokongan: 4130, 4031, 3877
• Tahap rintangan: 4246, 4274, 4314, 4343, 4403, 4429, 4467

Gold rose sharply yesterday and reached the resistance level 4246, where partial profit‑taking by buyers began. The price is now gradually sliding toward the EMA lines – it is likely that the price will start to consolidate in this region. For buying, attention should be paid to the support level 4130, below which lies a liquidity void area. If buyers react here, intraday long positions may be considered. For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at 4246 and 4274.

Senario alternatif:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4130
• Res: 4246
• Note: It is recommended to look for buying opportunities from the 4130 level, but only with confirmation in the form of buyer reaction. For selling, we evaluate the price reaction at 4246 and 4274.