Armed confrontation in the Middle East has entered its fifth week with no visible prospects for de‑escalation

On Friday, the US stock markets continued their active decline, hitting the lowest levels in the past seven months amid fears of global stagflation. By the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.73% (down -1.39% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 1.67% (down -3.13% for the week). The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 1.93% (down -4.69% for the week). The sharp rise in energy prices has effectively deprived investors of hope for Federal Reserve policy easing this year, while additional pressure came from China’s launch of a trade investigation against the United States in response to tariff measures.

The technology sector is experiencing a massive capital outflow, which has seriously undermined the positions of companies linked to the artificial‑intelligence industry. Shares of giants such as Tesla, Amazon, and Oracle lost more than 3%, while worsening credit conditions triggered a similar decline in JPMorgan and Visa. The most dramatic drop was seen in Meta, whose market value plunged by 12% in recent days due to large‑scale layoffs and an unfavorable court ruling declaring the social network addictive.

The Mexican peso weakened, breaking through the psychological level of 18 per US dollar and reaching its lowest value since the beginning of winter. The main reason for this dynamic was the narrowing interest‑rate differential between the US and Mexico, which made previously popular carry‑trade strategies less attractive. Investors reacted to the unexpected decision by the Bank of Mexico to resume its monetary‑policy easing cycle and cut the rate to 6.75%, despite inflation accelerating to 4.63% in mid‑March. The regulator was driven by slowing domestic economic activity and negative labor‑market data showing rising unemployment and persistently high informal employment.

European stock markets closed lower but remained in positive territory for the week. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.38% (up +1.61% for the week), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.87% (up +2.12% for the week), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.95% (up +2.53% for the week), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.05% (up +0.49% for the week). Price pressure in the oil market has already begun to translate into real inflation indicators. The scale of the problem was most clearly reflected in Spain, where consumer‑price growth in March reached multi‑year highs, showing the sharpest monthly jump since the 2022 crisis. Against this backdrop, the banking sector continued to suffer losses due to instability in the sovereign‑debt market, leading to noticeable declines in shares of giants such as BBVA, UniCredit, and Deutsche Bank.

The oil market opened the week with strong gains, rising about 3% and consolidating above the psychological level of 102 dollars per barrel. Investors are increasingly skeptical about a quick end to the conflict in Iran, which has now entered its second month. The situation was further complicated by the direct involvement of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who launched missile strikes on Israeli territory over the weekend and declared their intention to continue attacks until pressure on Tehran ceases. Another destabilizing factor is the ability of rebel groups to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and attack strategic facilities in Saudi Arabia.

Asian markets also mostly rose last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.72% for the trading week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) rose by 0.45%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.66%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) posted a five‑day gain of 2.81%.

Monday’s trading session in Asian markets opened with a noticeable decline, as the armed confrontation in the Middle East entered its fifth week with no visible prospects for de‑escalation. The geopolitical situation worsened after Donald Trump’s high‑profile statements about a possible takeover of Iran’s oil resources, coinciding with active involvement in the conflict by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who carried out attacks on Israeli territory.