A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2025.05.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1305
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1313
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.07 %

In the Eurozone, unexpectedly strong inflation data reinforced expectations of a 60 basis points rate cut by the European Central Bank before the end of the year. Swaps rate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the June 5 meeting at 96%. This week, investors await key monetary policy decisions from the Fed. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged after the release of a good employment report for April.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1297, 1.1246, 1.1157, 1.1088, 1.0960
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1343, 1.1440, 1.1492, 1.1572

The EUR/USD currency pair’s hourly trend is bearish. Probably, until the FOMC decision, the euro will be traded in a broadly volatile flat. Selling can be looked for from the resistance level of 1.1343, provided the sellers react. Buying should be considered from 1.1297, but also with confirmation.

Cenário alternativo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.1340 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3260
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3297
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.28 %

The British pound is holding near $1.33 as markets await the upcoming Bank of England decision, which is widely expected to cut the rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. Investors are also keeping an eye on the Bank’s updated economic expectations, which could indicate the likelihood of a further rate cut. Some analysts believe the Bank of England may lean toward a more aggressive easing path in response to global risks, especially related to President Trump’s new tariffs, which have heightened fears of a global economic slowdown. Nevertheless, the UK is considered relatively immune to US tariffs compared to regions such as China or the EU, as the US had a $12 billion goods surplus with the UK in 2024.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3260, 1.3246, 1.3121
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3320, 1.3345, 1.3434

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the currency pair GBP/USD on the hourly time frame is bullish, but the conditions for a change of trend are forming. Most likely, the price will seek to test the liquidity pool below 1.3260. Inside the day, we can look for selling from the EMA lines. There are no optimal entry points for buying right now.

Cenário alternativo:

if the price breaks the resistance level of 1.3202 and consolidates above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 144.64
• Anterior Fechar: 143.70
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.65 %

The yen traded lower than usual as the Japanese markets were closed on Monday due to the Children’s Day holiday. Today is also a bank holiday in Japan, so the US dollar will be driving the exchange rate. The US dollar recovered slightly yesterday on hopes for trade talks between the US and China and investors’ caution ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 144.03, 143.22, 142.26, 141.96, 140.18, 139.59
• Níveis de resistência: 145.08, 147.13

From a technical point of view, the medium-term trend of the USD/JPY is bullish. The Japanese yen seeks to test the FVG on the buyers’ side below 143.23. However, since yesterday and today, there are holidays in Japan, so the activity is expected to be low. The price is likely to continue flat near the EMA lines until the FOMC decision on Wednesday.

Cenário alternativo:

if the price breaks the support level of 141.96 and consolidates below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 3242
• Anterior Fechar: 3334
• % de mudança no último dia: +2.83 %

Gold rose to $3,360 an ounce on Tuesday, hitting its highest level in more than a week, as President Donald Trump’s new tariff threat spurred demand for safe-haven assets. On Sunday, Trump opened a new front in his trade war, saying movies produced outside the US would be subject to 100% tariffs. On Monday, he said he plans to unveil tariffs on pharmaceutical products within the next two weeks.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 3310, 3269, 3223, 3194
• Níveis de resistência: 3370, 3444, 3500

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the XAU/USD has changed to an upward trend. Gold broke and consolidated above the priority level. The price has reached the liquidity pool above 3370, and sellers are showing a reaction here. This could lead to a technical correction. The EMA lines or 3310 support level is worth considering for buying.

Cenário alternativo:

if the price breaks and consolidates below the support level of 3223, the downtrend will likely resume.