A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2026.03.30

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1534
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1509
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.21%

The European currency showed a moderate decline, settling at 1.152 dollars. Donald Trump’s decision to grant a ten‑day extension for reaching an agreement until April 6 was met with caution by market participants: the prevailing view is that Washington is using this pause to build up military power in the region. Alongside geopolitics, updated macroeconomic data is influencing investor sentiment. Inflationary pressure in Spain reached its highest levels in two years in March, although it came in slightly softer than preliminary predictions. This dynamic triggered a sharp reassessment of expectations regarding the European Central Bank’s policy path. Whereas earlier the market allowed for the possibility of future monetary easing, current realities have forced traders to price in a series of rate hikes already this year, completely ruling out any scenarios of rate cuts.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1490, 1.1415
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1548, 1.1587, 1.1617, 1.1639, 1.1666, 1.1707

The European currency fell to the support level of 1.1490, where buyers showed initiative. The intraday bias has temporarily shifted to buyers, opening opportunities for long positions toward the resistance level of 1.1548. Sell trades may be considered from 1.1548, provided sellers show confirmation. A breakout of 1.1490 will open the way toward 1.1450.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.1490
• Res: 1.1548
• Note: Intraday long positions may be considered from 1.1490, but with confirmation. For selling, it is important to see a reaction from 1.1548 or after a breakout of 1.1490.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3333
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3261
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.54%

The British currency stabilized near 1.33 dollars as market participants weighed conflicting signals from the Middle East against updated economic data. Geopolitical tensions triggered a radical reassessment of expectations regarding the Bank of England’s policy path: whereas investors previously expected monetary easing, the market is now pricing in at least two to three rate hikes by the end of the year. Domestic UK statistics also show worrying trends. Although February’s decline in retail sales was less severe than analysts predicted, March consumer‑confidence readings collapsed to a one‑year low. This highlights growing public concern about accelerating inflation and the overall slowdown in economic growth amid the international crisis.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3252, 1.3214
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3322, 1.3378, 1.3457, 1.3508, 1.3556

An SMT divergence has formed between the British pound and the euro. Typically, such a pattern is accompanied by a corrective move or a reversal. However, SMT divergence should not be viewed in isolation but with additional confirmation. In our case, a false breakout below 1.3252 may serve as such confirmation. Under these market conditions, long positions may be considered from 1.3252 with a target toward 1.3322. Sell trades are relevant from 1.3322 or after a breakout of the 1.3252 support.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 1.3252
• Res: 1.3322
• Note: Intraday long positions may be considered from 1.3252. For selling, it is important to see a reaction from 1.3322 or after a breakout of 1.3252.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 159.74
• Anterior Fechar: 160.27
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.33%

On Monday, the Japanese yen showed a confident recovery, recouping morning losses and rising above 160 per dollar. The strengthening of the national currency was driven by strong verbal interventions from the country’s financial authorities. In particular, the deputy finance minister expressed serious concern about excessive speculative activity affecting both currency markets and oil‑futures markets. The official emphasized the government’s readiness for radical measures in case of further destabilization. These statements came immediately after the exchange rate breached the critical psychological barrier, which had already prompted Tokyo to intervene directly in the summer of 2024.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 159.74, 159.30, 158.37, 157.87, 157.32
• Níveis de resistência: 161.29

The Japanese yen attempted to consolidate above 160.21 but quickly corrected to the support level of 159.74. This level will be key today in determining the intraday bias. If buyers show initiative here, intraday long positions toward 160.21 may be considered. A breakout of 159.74 on impulse will open the way toward 159.29.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 159.74
• Res: 160.51
• Note: Long positions are appropriate from the support level of 159.74, but with confirmation. Sell trades are relevant from 160.21 or after consolidation below 159.74.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 4379
• Anterior Fechar: 4495
• % de mudança no último dia: +2.64%

Gold prices showed a recovery, consolidating around 4,500 dollars per ounce, while the market remains highly volatile due to the lack of prospects for ending the Middle East crisis. The situation in the region entered a phase of escalation after direct involvement by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who attacked Israeli territory over the weekend and retain the ability to disrupt shipping routes in the Red Sea and strike energy assets in Saudi Arabia. The main restraining factor is the sharp rise in oil prices, which has fueled inflation risks and forced major global regulators to revise their plans in favor of raising interest rates.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 4351, 4304, 4169
• Níveis de resistência: 4601, 4732

Gold is forming a wide, volatile range between 4301 and 4601, within which a narrowing triangle is also forming. The difficulty in trading lies in the fact that the price is positioned exactly in the middle of both the corridor and the triangle. The intraday bias is currently with buyers, slightly favoring intraday long setups. However, setting stop‑loss levels is challenging. As a result, it is advisable to refrain from trading gold today.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Neutral
• Sup: 4351
• Res: 4601
• Note: At the moment, there are no optimal entry points.