A visão geral analítica dos principais pares de moedas em 2026.06.11

The EUR/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.1545
• Anterior Fechar: 1.1535
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.08%

The fresh May report from the US Department of Labor showed that annual headline inflation (headline CPI) accelerated to a three‑year high of 4.2% due to a sharp surge in gasoline and energy prices. However, core inflation (Core CPI, excluding food and energy) rose only 0.2% MoM, coming in below expectations. This moderate signal suggests that underlying price pressures in the US economy are gradually cooling, giving Wall Street faint hope that the Federal Reserve may refrain from overly aggressive rate hikes later this year. Market participants adopted a wait‑and‑see stance ahead of Thursday’s key ECB meeting, where the regulator is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.1528, 1.1511, 1.1490, 1.1450
• Níveis de resistência: 1.1573, 1.1610, 1.1630, 1.1651

From a technical standpoint, the situation for EUR/USD remains largely unchanged. The euro continues to form a sideways accumulation range between 1.1528-1.1573. Yesterday, the price bounced from the upper boundary and declined toward the lower boundary, where buyers once again showed initiative. Under these market conditions, intraday long positions may be considered from the 1.1528 support level or from the EMA lines, targeting 1.1573. For short positions, evaluate the price reaction at 1.1573.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.1528
• Res: 1.1573
• Note: Long positions may be considered from 1.1528 or EMA lines toward 1.1573. For shorts, monitor the reaction at 1.1573.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 1.3369
• Anterior Fechar: 1.3368
• % de mudança no último dia: -0.01%

The British pound consolidated slightly below the psychological 1.34 level, balancing between the Bank of England’s hawkish rhetoric and another wave of geopolitical escalation. Hopes for de‑escalation in the Middle East collapsed after the US and Iran exchanged new missile strikes. The renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and surging energy prices sharply increase inflationary risks for the UK. As a result, money markets began pricing aggressively in a 25‑bp rate hike at the Bank of England’s September meeting, with a very high probability of another increase before year‑end. Rising rates traditionally support the national currency.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 1.3361, 1.3336, 1.3309, 1.3252
• Níveis de resistência: 1.3388, 1.3412, 1.3459, 1.3483, 1.3507

Like the euro, the pound is forming a sideways accumulation range between 1.3361-1.3412. After liquidity was tested below 1.3361 during the Asian session, the probability of growth toward 1.3412 is high. Under these conditions, long positions may be considered from 1.3361 or from EMA lines, but with confirmation. For shorts, evaluate the reaction at 1.3412.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 1.3361
• Res: 1.3412
• Note: Consider longs from 1.3361 or EMA lines with confirmation. For shorts, monitor the reaction at 1.3412.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 160.33
• Anterior Fechar: 160.53
• % de mudança no último dia: +0.12%

Japan’s Business Survey Index (BSI) for large manufacturers unexpectedly plunged to negative 1.8% in Q2 from positive 3.8% in Q1 – the first negative reading since Q2 2025. The data came in far worse than analysts’ expectations of plus 4.2%. The sharp decline in corporate sentiment is driven by the prolonged Middle East conflict and renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. The situation is severely pressuring corporate margins, increasing stagflation risks (rising prices amid slowing output), and complicating the Bank of Japan’s task as it prepares for monetary tightening next week.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 160.26, 160.05, 159.83, 159.67, 159.45, 159.14, 158.65
• Níveis de resistência: 160.53, 161.29

The yen has reached the key 160.53 level, where Japanese authorities previously conducted their largest FX intervention. Currently, sellers show no initiative, nor signs of profit‑taking. Intraday bias remains bullish, but long positions are preferable only after an impulsive breakout and consolidation above 160.53. New FX interventions cannot be ruled out. Given the MACD divergence, intervention is highly likely. If intervention occurs, the price may sharply strengthen toward 159.14.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Uptrend
• Sup: 160.26
• Res: 160.53
• Note: Longs are appropriate only after a breakout above 160.53. For shorts, evaluate the reaction at 160.53 and consider the possibility of new interventions.

The XAU/USD currency pair (gold)

Indicadores técnicos do par de moedas:

• Anterior Abrir: 4255
• Anterior Fechar: 4070
• % de mudança no último dia: -4.54%

Gold prices continued their rapid decline, falling below $4100 per ounce and returning to levels last seen in late November 2025. The sell‑off intensified after the release of US inflation data, which broadly matched expectations but confirmed strong price pressures. In a high‑rate environment, gold – which yields no coupon income – quickly loses investment appeal. Meanwhile, panic has returned to commodity markets due to another breakdown of the fragile Middle East ceasefire. After another exchange of strikes between US and Iranian forces, President Donald Trump issued a harsh statement, stressing that Tehran would “pay a high price” for sabotaging peace agreements.

Recomendações de negociação

• Níveis de suporte: 4031, 3877
• Níveis de resistência: 4100, 4180, 4224, 4314, 4304, 4343, 4403, 4429, 4467

Gold updated its yearly low, testing liquidity below 4100 and reaching the 4031 support. Partial accumulation is already visible here, but the 4100 resistance continues to cap upward movement. If this level is broken, the price will likely move toward liquidity at 4180. Under these conditions, traders are advised to look for long opportunities only if the price consolidates above 4100. If this does not occur, intraday short positions from 4100 toward 4031 may be considered.

Cenário alternativo:

• Trend: Downtrend
• Sup: 4031
• Res: 4100
• Note: Look for longs only above 4100. Otherwise, intraday shorts from 4100 toward 4031 remain valid.